Wikipedia:

The Belo Monte Dam (formerly known as Kararaô) is a proposed hydroelectric dam complex on the Xingu River in the state of Pará, Brazil. The planned installed capacity of the dam complex would be 11,233 megawatts (MW), which would make it the second-largest hydroelectric dam complex in Brazil and the world’s third-largest in installed capacity, behind the Three Gorges Dam in China and the Brazilian-Paraguayan Itaipu Dam.

The opponents‘ thesis.

The app is available in the following countries:

Australia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

BetTornado has been designed specifically for the iPad, with different displays to cater for a variety of Sports Betting customers.

While the majority of users will find the simple ‘Bet Mode’ is all they really need, those who wish to trade the markets will find the specially designed ‘Trade Mode’ enables them to place bets very quickly and hedge profits or losses just as they would do with specialist trading software on a computer or laptop.

The extensive range of features has been designed by people with years of hands on experience trading the Betfair markets.

A third display, “Watch Mode” enables the user to choose individual selections from a variety of markets across different sports and load them all onto the same screen. Bets can then be placed on this screen as the desired odds are reached without having to keep checking different markets.

By including a ‘Training Mode’ which uses play money to place imaginary bets on Betfair, BetTornado also gives users a chance to learn how to use the software without risking losing real money.

http://twitter.com/BetTornado

Will Air France Flight 447′s black box be recovered?

Sport
The most anticipated sporting event this week is still the ongoing NBA playoffs. Last week the Lakers had only a even chance of wining compared to the Orlando Magic, this week though Hubdubbers make it a surefire bet it’s the Lakers for the win.

NBA Finals, LA Lakers – Orlando Magic, series outcome?

Politics

For anyone who thought British politics was boring and mundane, the recent expenses scandal in the UK is certainly creating a right fuss… Will it bring down Gordon Brown though? Well the expenses scandal and Brown’s staggering loss in recent elections in the UK, has his chances of being forced out in 2009 as high as 62% as of now.

Will Gordon Brown resign or be forced from office by the end of 2009?

Entertainment
David Carradine’s tragic death last week under ‘mysterious’ circumstances was shocking. His odd demise whether it was suicide or accidental, perhaps was caused by drugs? Hubdubber’s seem to think drugs a quite likely cause. There’s a 72% chance a autopsy shows drugs were in Carradine’s system.

Will autopsy show drugs be found in David Carradine system?

This weekend three main movies are vying for contention at the box office, Up, The Hangover and The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3. Up has already received critical acclaim, but the comedy The Hangover is gaining ground this week. As of now Up though still seems to the be the likely winner at the box office.

Which will be the No. 2 film at the U.S. box office the weekend of June 12-14, 2009?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets. Posted from newspundits blog.

Top-10 reasons why NewsFutures is the ideal partner to harness the wisdom of your crowd

1.) Integrated Solutions

We offer complete solutions, not just great software. This approach delivers a much higher success rate and enables the client organization to fully consider Prediction Markets as a key decision-support tool.

From experience, we know that a successful prediction market project requires a lot more than great software or a cool website. Above all:

- Featuring strategic and well-defined questions;
- Securing a high participation rate;
- Integrating the market into the management and decision-making processes.
- Our project management checklist covers 30+ task components of market design, market implementation, and market administration. To ensure success, NewsFutures offers hands-on management and best-practice advice at every stage, in close contact with the client-side team. And if the client is willing to handle some of those tasks itself, we make sure to transfer the relevant knowledge and skills.

2.) A suite of powerful tools

Our platform offers a full suite of knowledge aggregation tools that are optimized for various forecasting needs and business contexts: prediction markets, and more, much more.

As an early pioneer in the field of enterprise prediction markets, NewsFutures has been among the first to recognize not only the power of this tool, but also its various practical limits in certain situations. We are experienced enough to recognize when other knowledge aggregation mechanisms may offer more practical or productive solutions.

That’s why, in close collaboration with some of our clients (in particular InterContinental Hotels, Eli Lilly, Arcelor Mittal, and Pfizer), we have developed a suite of innovative software tools that enable us to optimally aggregate predictions in a variety of business contexts. All of these tools are currently fielded with various clients.

Our software platform currently includes:

Prediction Markets. A continuous double auction trading engine (with optional market maker) is particularly appropriate for measuring risks and opportunities as event probabilities. It can also be used to forecast continuous variables.

Competitive Forecasting. Designed for collective forecasting of specific business variables, such as quarterly sales, especially under several conditional scenarios, or with a small pool of participants.

Idea Pageant. Ideal for rapid harvesting and filtering of a large number of new ideas that require evaluation and prioritization.

Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.

This versatile set of tools enables us to propose and implement the most effective solution in every case.

3.) World-Class Expertise

NewsFutures has the longest record of implementing enterprise prediction markets, the most extensive enterprise client list, and the widest geographical reach.

Our team has been immersed in every aspect of delivering successful enterprise prediction markets since 2002. We have implemented internal markets and external markets of all shapes, durations and sizes, around the world: U.S.A., Brasil, France, U.K., Germany, Holland, Japan, Hong Kong, and as far as New Zealand. We have built the longest-running continuous client relationship in the industry (servicing Eli Lilly since 2003).

Our methodology and technological solutions have been shaped by this rich history of confrontation with reality. We know that implementing a successful enterprise prediction market requires clear goals, significant resources, constant care and monitoring, and we know what it takes to deliver success. No other team is more seasoned.

«NewsFutures has done some of the most innovative work in the area for longer than most. They were in there making it happen for real while others were clueless on the fringes.»
- Ajit Kambil – Gobal Director, Deloitte Research

Notably, we have also built our eponymous public prediction exchange into one of the best known play-money exchanges. The experience of running this market non-stop since the year 2000 gave us deep insights into what it takes to successfully manage a market for the long run.

4.) Creative leadership

NewsFutures is a thought leader and a creative driving force within the industry.

NewsFutures started implementing prediction markets in 2000, years before the buzz words “wisdom of crowds” and “web 2.0″ even surfaced in the brains of James Surowiecki and Tim O’Reilly – and we’ve been at the forefront of innovation ever since: Over the years, we’ve fielded several innovative tools for harvesting the wisdom of crowds in various enterprise contexts, and we even applied for a pending patent on a multi-outcome continuous double auction (CDA) trading engine.

In 2003, NewsFutures led the first field study comparing real-money and play-money markets, publishing the results in a landmark article co-authored with some of the field’s leading academic researchers: Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? – Electronic Markets, 14 (3), September 2004. This research significantly enhanced the credibility of play-money markets and, as a result, boosted their adoption within enterprise contexts.

In 2007, NewsFutures started experimenting with an innovative business model for real-money public prediction markets: Bet2Give.

NewsFutures work has been covered on television by CBS News (here) and CNBC (here), and in print by prestigious publications in the United States and Europe, including James Surowiecki’s international best-seller The Wisdom of Crowds.

Our CEO, Emile Servan-Schreiber, has lectured on the topic all over the world, including at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and at the Wharton Business School.
In recognition of NewsFutures’ practical and throught leadership, Emile was chosen to chair the new Prediction Market Industry Association. He is also an associate editor of the Journal of Prediction Markets.

5.) Customized solutions

Our software platform is customization-friendly, enabling us to tailor our solutions to a client’s special needs.

When dealing with high-end demanding customers, one size cannot fit all. The NewsFutures philosophy is to tailor a market solution to the problem at hand, rather than force-fit the problem to a pre-existing market template. That usually means, in addition to choosing the most appropriate tool and market design, customizing the user interface to optimize the integration with the client’s IT infrastructure and the navigation among various markets.

It also means being responsive to customer requests for additional features that extend the platform’s capabilities, and sometimes even developing completely new tools. (Indeed, this is how we came to develop and integrate into the platform a whole suite of original tools in addition to prediction markets.)

In contrast to the one-size-fits-all market and navigation templates provided by others, the NewsFutures software platform offers the flexibility needed to address the unique needs of demanding customers.

6.) Industrial-strength software

NewsFutures software satisfies the highest professional standards and demanding environments.

Internet giant Yahoo!, who knows a thing or two about quality software, chose to acquire the source code of our prediction market engine to power its own Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game.

Our platform is so reliable that it has been used to operate high-stakes real-money political markets for Holland’s leading daily de Volkskrant (see this report), and we currently use it to operate our own real-money prediction exchange Bet2Give.

7.) Military-grade security and confidentiality

We offer a range of access, backup, encryption, integration and hosting options that satisfies the most demanding customers.

NewsFutures has been vetted by customers who put a premium on data security and confidentiality, such as the U.S. Military, pharmaceutical clients, and others in the super-competitive IT industry.

While most clients are satisfied to host their applications on our servers, located in a high-security facility, others have had us ship fully configured hardware that they can install behind their own firewall, or had us install the prediction market application directly on one of their own servers within their existing IT infrastructure.

8.) Multilingual applications

In a global world, English is not enough.

Our software platform is designed to operate in multi-language mode, with a user interface that can offer several languages simultaneously. English, French, Dutch and German versions are already implemented. Other languages can easily be added on request. This feature is important for multinational companies that want to tap the collective intelligence of a linguistically diverse population.

9.) Round-the-clock support

Present on two continents, NewsFutures offers rapid response across many time-zones.

The NewsFutures enterprise team operates the world over from New Jersey, USA, and Paris, France. This enables rapid response in many different time zones and continuous availability from 08:00 to 01:00 GMT. We are currently servicing clients in the United States (from coast to coast), France, Holland, and as far as New Zealand. Our multi-cultural team is well suited to operate in a global world while being attuned to the importance of local differences.

10.) Team players

Although NewsFutures is equiped to deliver integrated solutions, we also have significant experience in partnering with consultancies to service their clients.

We find such partnerships rewarding and productive, and we are very comfortable with them, especially because they help implant the solutions deeper into the host organization. Over the years, we have teamed up with consultancies large and small. Among the largest are SAIC (on a U.S. Military project), Accenture (on a MIT Technology Review project), and the RAND Corporation (on a Texas DOT project).

If you are a consultancy and you would like to deliver wisdom of crowds solutions to your clients, please contact us for details of our partnership program.

Prompted by this CES coverage:

From China to Brazil, Russia to Mexico, India to Turkey and many places in between, consumers want instant voice and data connections from their handhelds on every street corner, easier access to more music and high-definition (HD) video and the ability to harness the collective intelligence and aspirations of their communities.

This phenomenon is playing out in an evolving, multipolar world for consumer electronics. In this world, economic, cultural and political powers are growing rapidly in emerging nations, starting to unlock their potential. China and India are the obvious examples, but progress in Mexico, Russia, Brazil as well as the emerging economies of Eastern Europe is less familiar. All are crucial to understand the evolving nature of the consumer electronics industry in a multipolar world.

Initially, globalization was a concept exported to the emerging world by dominant economies like the United States. Now, emerging economies have grasped globalization and packaged it, and are sending new versions of it back to the West.

It is against this backdrop that the industry heads to the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. [...]

Remote Gambling Association – PDF file:

European Union Commissioner Mandelson Urged to Defend Trade Rights
in WTO Dispute During Crucial Washington Visit

(Washington, D.C. – November 6, 2007) European politicians and industry
representatives are calling on E.U. Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson to use his visit
to the U.S. capital this week to seek the reversal of illegal discrimination against Europe’s
financial services, e-commerce and gaming industries. Mr. Mandelson’s meetings will
feature negotiations with U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab over compensation
owed to the E.U. and other countries following the U.S. withdrawal of services trade
concessions in the World Trade Organization related to gaming.

“The United States has engaged in blatantly protectionist behavior. U.S. companies are
entitled to operate in European markets, while we’ve been forced out of the United
States,” said Clive Hawkswood, Chief Executive of the Remote Gambling Association.
“Commissioner Mandelson’s visit is a good opportunity to address discrimination against
responsible European companies. The USTR should be put on notice that the E.U. will
not allow the wholesale denial of trade rights protected by the World Trade Organization.
Brussels should take every conceivable measure to defend the system of global trade
law.”

“In the ongoing negotiations on what concessions the US will offer, it is vitally important
that the European Commission extract the maximum possible benefit for European
companies,” said Member of the European Parliament Robert Sturdy. “The US must not
be allowed to unilaterally withdraw a whole market sector from its trade commitments
simply because the growth of that market sector is being driven by European companies.
It is incumbent on the Commission to protect Europe’s interests in this case.” MEP Sturdy
said.

The United States has taken draconian steps to seal its domestic gambling markets from
foreign participants, including gaming companies as well as financial services and
information technology companies, This despite the fact that U.S. possesses the world’s
largest gambling market, and allows U.S. operators to offer certain forms of online
gambling for U.S. operators. “European jurisdictions have already proven the merits of a
regulated environment. We would encourage the development of a similarly fair and
balanced environment in the United States,” Hawkswood added.

The World Trade Organization ruled in 2004 and 2005 that U.S. laws discriminated
against foreign competitors, in violation of global trade rules and the United States’ own
ratified commitments to the WTO. This year, after failing to comply with a WTO ruling
that U.S. laws be reformed, the United States announced it would withdraw those
commitments, entitling WTO member countries to fair compensation for the lost market
access. The closure of the $100 billion U.S. gaming market had financial ramifications
far beyond the gaming industry itself, wiping out billions of dollars from the balance
sheets of European institutional investors, pension funds, and financial services
companies as well as affecting the many supplier industry sectors to the gaming industry.
“It’s clear from the WTO rulings that the European Union and other WTO partners are
entitled to full and fair compensation,” said Nao Matsukata, formerly Director of Policy
Planning for USTR Robert Zoellick and now a Senior Advisor for Alston and Bird LLP.
“Failure to resolve the United States’ discriminatory practices would lead the WTO to
authorize countries to enact enormous sanctions against the U.S. equal to the value of the
lost market access. This situation could be avoided through a legislative solution.
Frankly, the Congress is already moving in a responsible manner on this issue, and
should take the matter out of USTR’s hands to prevent the further deterioration of U.S.-
European trade relations.”

Draft legislation offered by House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) in
the U.S. Congress would create a national licensing system for online gambling in the
United States. This approach would provide blanket authority for foreign operators to
participate in U.S. state markets to the extent that those markets are open to domestic
providers of gambling services. “The U.S. Congress is seeking to regulate online gaming
in a competitive and fairly taxed environment that encourages the participation of
responsible companies,” said Lode Van Den Hende of Herbert Smith LLP. “The
legislation would create strong consumer protections, facilitate consumer choice, respond
to technological innovation, and provide durable tax revenues for the future. Since the
U.S. Trade Representative’s sole interest seems to be violating the rights of European
industry, it is incumbent upon Commissioner Mandelson to work with the U.S. Congress
to develop a responsible solution.”

Several key WTO partners of the United States have already expressed concern over the
broader impact of USTR’s decisions on global trade. “At a minimum, Washington’s
actions call into question the United States’ credibility in current WTO negotiations for
greater trade liberalization,” Matsukata said. “It will be readily apparent to significant
economies such as China, India and Brazil, that the United States seeks to create one
standard for its trading partners, and another for itself. This risks setting a precedent in
the WTO that would ultimately prove harmful not only to the global, rules-based trading
system, but also to the long term ability of the U.S. to remain competitive.”

(As an aside, on Tuesday, about the time that news came out that the Coach was playing Brianna Scurry in goal against the Brazilians, the USA team dropped from about 75 percent to just under 50 percent. The USA contract subsequently rebounded a bit, but did not return above 60 percent.)

It looks like just over 50 traders participated over the course of the market, with about half that number holding positions going into the final match.

Betfair is running a host of betting exchanges around the games, and Germany also appears to be the favorite on that site. (If someone can find Betfair data on the USA vs. Brazil match that spans the goalkeeping change announcement, it may reveal a pretty clear market verdict on the move. I wouldn’t be surprised if the verdict is also revealed in the coaching market, perhaps shortly after the tournament is over.)

Previously: Creating a Prediction Market on Inkling for the Women’s World Cup was Easy!

UPDATE: Germany victorious over Brazil, 2-0.