Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Boeing

Boeing 787 Dreamliner @ InTrade

Thanks to Midas Oracle, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner prediction market will soon be opened at InTrade.
Thank you, Midas Oracle.
Addendum: Don’t get fooled by any other statement.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner may *not* fly in 2009, but there aren’t any prediction market to catch that.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner may *not* fly in 2009.
No liquidity at Bet2Give. This exchange is a failure.
Old prediction market at HubDub:
When will the maiden flight of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner occur?

Overview of Henry Manne’s, “Insider Trading: Hayek, Virtual Markets, and the Dog that Did Not Bark”

In “Insider Trading: Hayek, Virtual Markets, and the Dog that Did Not Bark,” Henry Manne reflects on the insider trading literature in law, economics, and finance and considers how well his initial arguments have stood the test of time. His book Insider Trading and the Stock Market was published in 1966. In brief, his [...]

Prediction markets or insider trading could reveal information hidden from upper management

Larry Ribstein suggests that at least some of Boeing’s troubles with the 787 might have been avoided if either insider trading was permitted in Boeing’s stock or the company was operating internal prediction markets focused on project completion.
The quotes that Ribstein draws from the Wall Street Journal article on Boeing highlight two problems – one [...]

Boeing X-48B prediction markets, anyone??

Air Force Times – Blended-wing aircraft starts test flights

Psstt… On July 9, 20007, we asked for ScramJet prediction markets. PopSci’s PPX has just opened a prediction market on whether a scramjet-powered vehicle will reach a top speed of Mach 15 by the end of 2009. Fantastic.

Airbus received orders for a total of 680 airplanes in the first half of 2007, putting it ahead of archrival Boeing in plane sales this year.

The Wall Strreet Journal $$$
I said 10 times on Midas Oracle that we should have plane orders prediction markets. What we would have seen, in this case, is the crash of the “Boeing will do better than Airbus in S1″ event derivative, starting from the date of last month’s aviation fair in Le Bourget, France, [...]

Battle of Titans in the Sky


Airbus A350 XWB:


Boeing 787 Dreamliner:


A350 vs. Dreamliner prediction markets, anyone??

Airbus has booked only 13 firm orders for its proposed A350 plane, compared with nearly 600 for Boeing’s rival 787 midsize long-haul jet.

Wall Street Journal – $$$
A350 Termination prediction markets, anyone??

PREDICTION MARKETS: Airbus A380 vs. Boeing 787

Fortune:
QUESTION: Airbus has bet on big airplanes — the A-380 can seat 550 passengers. Boeing has bet on efficient airplanes. What makes you confident that you’re right?
BOEING CFO: It’s not just efficient airplanes. We’re also looking at smaller airplanes that can fly farther and join city pairs. Early on you built bigger planes because bigger [...]

Will the first commercial A380 be delivered by the 31st of October, 2007?

It’s a great prediction market. (((However, as I said last time, I really would like to see a “new orders of aircraft” prediction market —Airbus vs. Boeing.)))
No: 55%
Yes: 45%
Airbus has once again delayed the delivery of its first double-decker A380. Airbus Chief Executive Christian Streiff told reporters and analysts on a conference call it was [...]

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