How Midas Oracle got started off…

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Excellent article about enterprise prediction markets and Inkling Markets —with a good word for Robin Hanson, who invented MSR.
  • HubDub limitations
  • BetFair Developer Program use Joomla! as their blog software (and CMS).
  • Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States’ withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.
  • Iraq War = “not necessary”, “a serious strategic blunder” — US News Media = “complicit enablers” in the manipulation of the public (“the propaganda campaign”) — George W. Bush turned away “from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.”
  • JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.
  • Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

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We have witnessed a backlash against the prediction markets just after the Hew Hampshire fiasco. Some bloggers and journalists picked on the prediction markets (InTrade, that is), even though both the polls and the pundits were awfully wrong too. [*] Here are the persons who participated in the pro-PM side of the debate:- Robin Hanson at Overcoming Bias (the best pro-PM piece so far, although his phrasing is a bit too long and a bit too complicated for the average citizen)-

– Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal (who did not convince Felix Salmon, who in tun did not convince me :-D )-

– Chris Masse at Midas Oracle (see Tim Harford&#8217-s new post to discover how irrational Chris Masse really is :-D )-

– Jason Ruspini in a comment here-

– Caveat Bettor on Caveat Bettor

– and John Tierney in the New York Times (a special case I&#8217-ll blog about soon).

[UPDATE: Jonathan Kennedy.]

[UPDATE: Mike Giberson.]

[UPDATE: Eric Zitzewitz.]

[UPDATE: Cass Sunstein.]

[UPDATE: Steve Roman,]

[UPDATE: Nigel Eccles.]

[UPDATE: The Everyday Economist.]

[UPDATE: Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets.]

[UPDATE: George Tziralis.]

[UPDATE: Leighton Vaughan-Williams.]

[UPDATE: Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures.]

[UPDATE: “Thrutch“.]

[UPDATE: Panos Ipeirotis.]

[UPDATE: Sean Park.]

[UPDATE: Lance Fortnow.]

[UPDATE: Jed Christiansen.]

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[*] For why the polls were wrong, see: The New York Times, Zogby, Rasmussen, Gallup&#8230- [Thanks to Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures for one link.]