Tag Archives: Bin Laden

Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)?

Posted on May 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 – by Allen M. Poteshman – 2006 Options traders, corporate managers, security analysts, exchange officials, regulators, prosecutors, policy makers, andâ€”at timesâ€”the public … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged 9/11 Commission, Airline, airline index, Al Qaeda, Allen M. Poteshman, Bin Laden, calls, derivatives, Did Bin Laden, FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation, insider trading, insiders, options, Policy Analysis Market, put options, puts, S&P 500, SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, Standard and Poor's airline, stocks, terrorism, terrorists, UAL, United States, US airlines, World Trade Center | 3 Comments

The prediction markets deserve a fair trial.

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor: Sadly, from our analysis, the impression that one gets is of a market that is spooked by poll results; driven by stale news; and heavily influenced by gossip and rumour. Questions: Could Lord O’Connor cite the name of … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Bin Laden, Central Intelligence Agency, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Niall O'Connor, prediction markets, United States | Leave a comment

The event futures contract on both Bin Laden and Musharraf at InTrade-TradeSports

Posted on November 9, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade-TradeSports: This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if BOTH of the following events occur before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract: 1. Osama Bin Laden is captured or neutralised 2. President Pervez Musharraf departs as … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged Bin Laden, Eric Zitzewitz, Larry Craig, media sources, Musfarraf, official, Osama bin Laden, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, President, public announcements, US government, USD | Leave a comment

August 6, 2001: Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US.

Posted on August 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Note: This blog post is filed in the “forecasting” and “accuracy” categories. — New York Times – Anonymous Editorial: [...] The Bush team was so busy in 2001 trying to upend Americaâ€™s global relationships according to a neo-conservative agenda that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), History, Politics | Tagged Abu Zubaydah, Afghanistan, Ahmed Ressam, Al Qaeda, America, Bin Laden, California, Canada, Central Intelligence Agency, Condoleezza Rice, Dar es Salaam, East Africa, Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Federal Bureau of Investigation, George W. Bush, Iraq, Kenya, Lieutenant, Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, media reports, Nairobi, national security adviser, New York, New York Times, Omar Abdel Rahman, operative, President, Ramzi Yousef, Tanzania, Tenet, UAE, United States, Washington, World Trade Center | Leave a comment

Robin Hanson should have written to the New York Times’ public editor.

Posted on June 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

2000â€“2003 US DoD’s DARPA‘s IAO’s FutureMAPâ€“Policy Analysis Market project Here’s the New York Times news article on PAM , titled Pentagon Prepares A Futures Market On Terror Attacks. [Wrong. It was a prediction exchange on Mid-East issues. Market-generated predictions are … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged Bin Laden, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Pentagon, prediction markets, public editor, Robin Hanson, Securities and Exchange Commission, the New York Times, United States, US DoD, USD | Leave a comment

Reality check on TradeSports-InTrade’s recent statement

Posted on October 25, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

The spin doctoring goes like this: TradeSports, the leading person to person retail trading exchange, continues to grow and innovate in the lead-up to this November’s US elections. Reality Check: The world’s biggest retail, real-money prediction exchange is BetFair, actually. … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bin Laden, David Pennock, Dow Jones, Independent Betting Arbitration Service, Internet Gambling Prohibition, Ireland, Irish government, person retail trading exchange, retail, retail person, See David Pennock, the Globe, United Kingdom, United States, US Treasury | 8 Comments