Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Bill Clinton

Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario.

Dick Morris:
It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. [...] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare.
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Dick Morris:
Instead of conceding defeat and campaigning for Obama, auditioning for the spot of loyal teammate, Hillary insists on keeping her options [...]

Michael Bloomberg for US President??

Michael Bloomberg to run as Independent in 2008

Previous: Under this hypothetical scenario, the money would support a targeted advertising campaign to sell an Electoral College strategy to voters.

The McLaughlin Group (MP4 file):

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Issue Four: Back to Bloomberg.
Mayor of New York Mike Bloomberg may run for U.S. president as an independent. The political consequences of [...]

Macro reflections on private equity hypocrisy, and recent dollar history

Unlike this peak signal, I don’t see the apparent hypocrisy of private equity players tapping public money supply.
In fact, isn’t it a good pairs trade? Sell the overvalued asset and buy the undervalued assets?
UPDATE: Steve Conover has another excellent graph and analysis on the strength of the dollar. To me, it says some [...]

Who could have masterminded the alleged manipulation of the Hillary Clinton prediction market???

Fortune:
[...] [Haim] Saban wasn’t even interested in politics until he met Bill Clinton during his first term as President. The meeting was brief, but the friendship grew as Clinton made dozens of trips to California during his presidency. Clinton, Saban says, ignited his interest in using his resources to find solutions to strife in the [...]

Media Predict’s Brent Stinski interviewed by Sandra Ruttan

Media Predict’s Brent Stinski interviewed by Sandra Ruttan – Originally posted on the “In For Questioning” blog

Betting on a Bestseller: Media Predict responds to questions about the stock market approach to publishing
Yesterday we learned Simon & Schuster was (again) setting the publishing world abuzz [see the New York Times on Media Predict] with a strategy [...]

This is a really tough decision. War may well be the right decision at this point. In fact, I think it–it’s–it–it probably is.

So said Time columnist Joe Klein just before the Iraq war. And now, Joe Klein pretends that he was all against this Iraq war from day one.
Joe Klein is just the latest of the so-called “MSN” pundits caught red-handed by the political bloggers. Scientist (and leftist blogger) Sean Caroll gives you all the details of [...]

How did the pollsters fare in predicting the 2006 US elections? – Accuracy & Precision

Grading the Pollsters – [polls accuracy] – by WSJ’s Carl Bialik, “the number guys” – 2006-11-16
While data are now easier to obtain, there remains disagreement about how to calculate accuracy. Is picking the winner enough? Most experts agree it isn’t, and focus instead on measuring how close the predictions were to the actual spread — [...]

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