Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here:
Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a <- 100 share transaction, ie, <- $5 worth of commissions for Intrade, so mentioning commissions / greed as a motivator is pure ignorance). They wanted to put up a buy of 65 shares at say 5%, so that if the price ever dips that low, they can close their short position and wind up with a nice profit. And then, big mistake, they hit sell instead of buy. The market plummets. Mystery solved. It’-s called human error.
Why should you try Predictalot?
- Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’-s basketball tournament.
- Sports fans: Check the crowd’-s odds: Is St. Mary’-s the next Cinderella?
- Economists: Play with a true combinatorial prediction market with 9.2 quintillion outcomes and a single pool of liquidity, unlike almost any other of today’-s financial and prediction markets.
- Geeks: Ponder some of the interesting computer science challenges, including approximating #P-hard problems and an eerily similar sampling problem as faced by physicists.
- Everybody’-s doing it.
- Barack Obama might do it, according to VentureBeat on NYTimes.com: “-President Barack Obama will likely be busy this week [but]…- maybe he’ll be able to sneak a peek at Predictalot on his BlackBerry between meetings.”-
Their CTO (Hunter Morris) is the first to present in the video. Watch out for his slide on casual and social betting.
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External Link: Smarkets
Is that regulation or extortion?
Can I choose my style of odds?
We show percentage odds by default, but you can select the odds display of your choice from the top of every page. We offer American, fractional, decimal and percentage odds. Because we allow fans to set their own odds you may see some strange looking fractional or American odds, we recommend percentage odds as we think they are the most flexible and readable choice.
Does anybody (in Great Britain or elsewhere) disagree with that? Explain your view in the comments.
I do agree with Smarkets.
The relationship between William Hill and the betting exchanges has not been a good one. On January 29, 2003, David Harding on the subject of Betfair’s impact on the the over-round said- “Some racecourse markets now return overrounds of only 1.2 to 1.3 per cent per runner. That is not sustainable. I cannot have a price mechanism for 50% of my business being desecrated.
In a recent interview with Betview magazine Ralph Topping, Hills’ current head had this to say of Betfair-
“‘I call Betfair the choirboys of the betting industry – “look at us we’re so innocent” – actually the exchanges are the biggest Masonic lodge there is. They’re a massive secret society where illegal gambling is taking place. What would throw a spanner in the works is if William Hill came up with an exchange model which could be offered in our betting shops or through our telephone business.”
A fascinating portrayal of one of the most transparent betting companies in the world.