Tag Archives: bets

Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]

Robin Hanson: A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records, and thus encourages rivals and victims to collect and report records. The lesson I take for forecast accuracy is that it … Continue reading

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The crisis of meaning of the prediction markets — [HYPE CYCLE]

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Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]

InTrade’s prediction markets on the recent Arab revolutions didn’t bring anything interesting in our understanding of the Middle East. Robin Hanson’s insistence is absurd.

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InTrade CEO John Delaney (42) died on May 21, 2011, while climbing Mount Everest, and his body will remain there. — [OBITUARY]

New York Times & CNBC. John Delaney, 41, from Ireland, has collapsed less than 50m from the top. He left for the expedition on April 9 and was due back in Ireland at the end of this month. His body … Continue reading

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InTrade floats Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s life. — [PREDICTION MARKET]

InTrade: New Prediction Market: Dominique Strauss-Kahn Tuesday, May 17, 2011 On May 16th 2011 Dominique Strauss-Kahn appeared in New York City Criminal Court and was charged with two counts of a criminal sexual act in the first degree , first-degree … Continue reading

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Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]

Scenarios.

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Cold Fusion Prediction Markets — [HISTORY]

In April 1989, Robin Hanson created this prediction market: By 1/1/91 a <1 liter device will have generated over 1 watt of power output more than input from room-T fusion, including amortized power to create/separate components. I suppose that InTrade … Continue reading

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On The Use of Prediction Markets in Information Security (CIA’s In-Q-Tel) — [LINK]

- Alpha version sometime in the next few months. – Conf.

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BetTornado is the first sports trading app for the iPad. –> It connects to BetFair though their API. — [SCREENSHOTS]

The iPad app is completely free and has no advertising. The app is available in the following countries: Australia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Spain, Sweden and … Continue reading

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Shutdown threat for BetFair as Italian regulator takes tough line on licences — [LINK]

“The authority has accused Betfair Italia of breaching the provisions of its Italian gaming licence agreement, which prohibits the online operator from offering games to Italian residents in breach of Italian law, whether directly or through an affiliate.” Thanks to … Continue reading

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