Tag Archives: becoming president

Short-selling the Al Gore nomination contract at InTrade-TradeSports?

Posted on October 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Slaughtermeyer (no deep link to the forum): Gore is about to miss the registration deadline for the Michigan primary which is on Oct. 23 and he’ll also miss the Nov. 2 registration deadline for the New Hampshire primary soon too. … Continue reading →

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Question to Koleman Strumpf, Michael Giberson and Caveat Bettor

Posted on October 18, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Reader “Big Chase” to me (with permission to republish his/her e-mail here): Subject: Conditional chance formula Message: 1. With regard to the blog entry “Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market?“, what is the reason/value of distinguishing between … Continue reading →

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Nicholas Kristoff’s ad for the InTrade prediction markets in the New York Times

Posted on July 31, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Heu… Sorry… Nicholas Kristoff’s Op-Ed featuring the InTrade betting exchange in the 2007-07-30′s New York Times – $$$ … Via Freakonomics… Right now the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record thinks Hillary Rodham Clinton has the best chance of … Continue reading →

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THE 2007-07-07 LUCKY DAY: Washington Post’s Slate.com links to Eric Zitzewitz’s piece on Midas Oracle.

Posted on July 7, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Tim Harford: The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between … Continue reading →

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Manipulation of the Hillary Clinton event derivative? Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz + Koleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode + Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea

Posted on June 29, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Tim Harford: The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between … Continue reading →

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Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market?

Posted on May 31, 2007 by Koleman Strumpf

Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz recently have suggested there have been manipulations in the Intrade market for Hillary Clinton. The primary piece of evidence is the recent increase in her chance of being elected president without a concurrent increase in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments