Slaughtermeyer (no deep link to the forum):
Gore is about to miss the registration deadline for the Michigan primary which is on Oct. 23 and he’ll also miss the Nov. 2 registration deadline for the New Hampshire primary soon too. So there’s actually more chance of him becoming president as an Independent than as the Democratic [...]
Reader “Big Chase” to me (with permission to republish his/her e-mail here):
Subject: Conditional chance formula
Message: 1. With regard to the blog entry “Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market?“, what is the reason/value of distinguishing between Hillary’s chance of becoming president from her “conditional chancel” to become president? Isn’t her chance to become [...]
Heu… Sorry… Nicholas Kristoff’s Op-Ed featuring the InTrade betting exchange in the 2007-07-30’s New York Times – $$$ … Via Freakonomics…
Right now the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record thinks Hillary Rodham Clinton has the best chance of becoming president, with Bill Richardson enjoying the best shot of becoming vice president. That [...]
Tim Harford:
The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between 20 and 30 per cent. Her odds of winning the Democratic nomination stayed around 50 per [...]
Tim Harford:
The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between 20 and 30 per cent. Her odds of winning the Democratic nomination stayed around 50 per [...]
Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz recently have suggested there have been manipulations in the Intrade market for Hillary Clinton. The primary piece of evidence is the recent increase in her chance of being elected president without a concurrent increase in her chance of winning the Democratic nominee. The argument is that the implicit probability of [...]
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