Tag Archives: beauty contests

Prediction markets are not beauty contests, and InTrade are not truth-oriented people.

Panos Iperotis: [T]he “truth grounding” of prediction markets serves to avoid the self-reinforcement described above. If a market, grounded on a real outcome, says A=90% and B=10% one day before expiration, and I believe that B is the real winner, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Ethics, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment