Tag Archives: Barak Obama
Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.
Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire?
…asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar.
So, I’ve been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction [...]
2008’s Hillary Clinton = 2004’s Howard Dean
2008 US presidential elections
Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
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- Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard
- Prediction Market Dashboard
My understanding was that she wasn’t Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, so I don’t know exactly what experiences she’s claiming.
Barak Obama on Hillary Clinton. Everybody laughed. New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd (in a November column) continues:
Hillary [Clinton] did not show good judgment in her areas of influence — the legal fiefdom, health care and running oppo-campaigns against Bill’s galpals.
“She hasn’t accomplished anything on her own since getting admitted to Yale Law,” wrote Joan [...]
RE: Alleged manipulation of the Hillary Clinton event derivative at InTrade-TradeSports
Does a rich trader, highly partisan and highly convinced that Hillary will make it, care about the price? If he/she has persuaded himself/herself that the expiry will bring $100, then buying the Hillary Clinton event derivative at $40 will yield quite a good potential profit, in his/her view. … Buying at $25… $40… or $30… [...]
US Presidential Politics: The Jason Ruspini Incoherence
The Brain, in a comment on Marginal Revolution:
I would begin to sell Obama if he approaches 40% on the Intrade nomination market. Buying the Giuliani and McCain nomination contracts for 67% combined sounds like a good bet here.
Why not doing exactly that with Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama (i.e., buying both of them), then, smart [...]
New York Times on prediction markets — REDUX
- New York Times.
- Justin Wolfers Interview – by New York Times – (MP3) – 2007-02-14
JOURNALO: InTrade = betting market
JUSTIN WOLFERS: InTrade = Las Vegas bookie meets New York Stock Exchange.
prediction markets: strong track record (example: IEM compared to polls)
historical prediction markets (Strumpf–Rhode)
InTrade: good/bad general election candidate??
JOURNALO: Hillary Clinton, the weakest?? Al Gore??
JUSTIN WOLFERS: Beware [...]
The Chicago Bears didn’t go all the way, Mister Barak Obama.
Expired TradeSports data:
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Expired data for BetFair are not available —BetFair is retarded on that one.
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Alas, I haven’t compared the money matched on both exchanges —did someone do it? I expect BetFair to come with a superior volume —the Super Bowl being an internationally televised event.
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