Tag Archives: Bank of England

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 16, 2008 — 3 Comments

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged 202.418.5521, 4th of July, ABC, Acting Chairman, American Enterprise Institute, Andy Serwer, Arthur Levitt Jr., Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Brookings Joint Centre, Bush, Cato Institute, CEO, CFTC, Charles Noussair, Chicago, Chicago Tribune, Chief Executive Officer, CNN, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress, David Leonhardt, David Paton, David Pennock, de facto leader, Economics Reporter, economist, energy, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, European Central Bank, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evet derivatives, federal government, Federal Reserve System, Florida, Fortune, Frankfurt, general public use, George Mason University, governor, HDDVD, Important Mission, InTrade, InTrade CEO, Ireland, Ivy League College, Jason Ruspini, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, KING, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, London, managing editor, Marco Ottaviani, Mark J. Perry, Mark Perry, media businesses, Michigan, naturaldisaster, New York, North Korea, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, Prediction Market Limited, prediction markets, President, price discovery information, Professor, professor of economics, Ray Disc, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Reuters, Richmond, Robert Mugabe, Robin Hanson, Saddam Hussein, Secretary, Securities and Exchange Commission, Stephen Dubner, the Financial Times, The Los Angles Times, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, TIME MAGAZINE, Toshiba, traded bets, U.S. Department of Energy, United States, United States Navy, University of Michigan-Flint, University of Westminster Business School, US government, USD, Wall Street Journal, Walt Lukken, What InTrade, White House, Yoshiaki Arata

Market Probabilities on January 2008 FOMC

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 2, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Stan Jonas (DutchBook Partners) to me:
This chart captures (tick by tick) the “arbitrageable” probabilities of perhaps the most popular “bet” traded: the probability that the FED will move 50 basis points (i.e. twice) by the January 2008 FOMC. As in the market convention, probabilities of > 100% say 125% are to be read as 25% [...]

Posted in Finance | Also tagged central bank, DutchBook Partners, Federal Reserve System, FOMC, Norway, Stan Jonas, Sweden

What will be the level of the UK Base Rate as determined by the Bank of England at time and date stated below?

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 5, 2007 — Leave a Comment

BetFair forum:
NEW BETFAIR UK BASE RATE PREDICTION MARKETS
Betfair Financials 03 Jul 13:35
From Tuesday 3 July, for an indefinite trail [*] period, we will be offering long term markets on the level of the UK Base Rate.
These will allow you to bet on level of the UK Base Rate at a specified [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Also tagged Europe, London, United Kingdom

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Tag Archives: Bank of England

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Market Probabilities on January 2008 FOMC

What will be the level of the UK Base Rate as determined by the Bank of England at time and date stated below?

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