Midas Oracle .ORG » assassinations

Camorra assassination recorded live on camera in Naples

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 16:08:47 +0000

Are prediction markets on deaths and assassinations SOMETIMES acceptable?

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:30:28 +0000

BELOW IS THE CHART OF A SETTLED PREDICTION MARKET:

Will Patrick Swayze die before April 15, 2008?

It was settled on “no”.

HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles thinks that his traders “quickly came to the conclusion that the [early 2008] story [giving him 5 weeks to live] was bogus.” And Nigel Eccles asks, “Is this an example where a death pool prediction market is actually socially valuable?”

In my view:

It’s the opinion makers external to HubDub who should decide this. If most people and/or lawmakers decide that prediction markets on deaths and assassinations are disgusting and unacceptable, then they should be pruned. We need goodwill towards the prediction markets if we want the real-money prediction markets to be legalized everywhere.
Would Nigel Eccles accept a prediction market about when his wife (or kid) is going to die?
Is there a social utility in knowing when exactly a celebrity is going to die (supposing that such a prediction market could be accurate)? For a head of state, a running politician, or a Justice, that information might have a value. However, in the case of a Hollywood celebrity, I don’t see where the value lays. A prediction market on the upcoming death of a celebrity would participate in that big, stupid circus that occurs today, with paparazzi and tabloids taking an importance that they shouldn’t have in the first place. Our youth would be better off browsing and betting on prediction markets about science and technology. We should elevate our global civilization. I don’t see any (social or individual) benefit about knowing in advance when exactly Patrick Swayze is going to die. I am scratching my head right now —and I still don’t see any reason why we should spend our precious time blogging on this issue, betting on that, or collecting probabilistic predictions on that. I just don’t. (If you have a counter argument, do publish a comment below.)
The very best wishes to Patrick Swayze, by the way.

The HubDub prediction markets on assassinations could be somewhat useful in some cases —now that I am sober and that I think of it.

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:12:59 +0000

I published 3 times my opinion that it is a nuclear scandal of apocalyptic proportions that HubDub allows prediction markets on celebs’ death and assassination. My view is that this will attract strong criticism from people who are very strict on the issue of morality. And the prediction markets don’t need another polÃ©mique at this time.

But after reading Medemi’s comment, popped up an idea in my mind. Medemi tells about the assassination of Pim Fortuyn, an extremist politician in Holland —who received many death threats and did not get appropriate protection. His assassination was predictable. (He was indeed gunned down during a political campaign.) If, at the time, a prediction market had been opened on the likelihood of his violent death, the high probabilities would have attracted attention —and, as a result, maybe the Police would have granted Pim Fortuyn a special protection.

What do you think?

Yet another person outraged by the HubDub prediction markets on deaths and assassinations

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 14:06:40 +0000

Here.

Outraged by that.

Previously.

The HubDub predictions markets on assassinations and deaths are sparking outrage.

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 21:23:50 +0000

Nigel Eccles does not seem to understand that.