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Prediction markets are questions where the right answers pay back.

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 08:00:22 +0000

Prediction markets are questions where the right answers pay back.

I like that. George Tziralis is brilliant. I have always said that that guy is brilliant.

The prediction market consultants who matter —and the others who don’t

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 09:29:31 +0000

Who are the prediction market consultants who took part of the conversation prompted by the publication of the devastating story by The Economist?

- Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets

- Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast

- George Tziralis of AskMarkets

- Jed Christiansen of Mercury

“The forecasting ability of a tool should not be judged against a virtual fool-proof prophet, as such a tool simply cannot exist.”

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 21:20:54 +0000

“Youâ€™d better compare it with other existing tools or widely-used mechanisms, finally leveraging on the supremacy of one over the others.”

Congrats to George Tziralis

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 11:37:00 +0000

For being mentioned among the best most prominent European entrepreneurs.

AskMarkets will be a founding partner of the Open Institute Of Prediction Markets —I hope very much so.

At the contrary, mister Kirtland.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 14:54:07 +0000

Contra Alex Kirtland, I believe that the development of play-money prediction exchanges using MSR (like HubDub or AskMarkets), which popularity is now proved, is much more important news than stuff about CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchanges (like HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange), which popularity is uncertain.

Inkling Markets, HubDub and AskMarkets have been techcrunched —that has not been the case for HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange. Practically, that means a great injection of PageRank, hundreds if not thousands of bookmarks, and plenty of new users. That’s not what I call being “overshadowed”.

My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 18:27:34 +0000

Dear George,

Congrats for the launch of AskMarkets. Best wishes to your prediction exchange and consulting firm.

Here’s the perfect opportunity to ask you the “question that kills”:

What was the social utility of the political election prediction markets during the 2008 campaign?

In other words, why should the media have informed people about the InTrade probabilities at a time Nate Silver did a near-perfect job forecasting the 2008 US elections?

What’s the added value of the political election prediction markets over the poll aggregators?

Can you cite one prediction market (other than the “who’s gonna become president?” prediction market) that has a high social utility?

Each time I ask this question to one of the prediction market luminaries (or so they think they are), I get back the same glance I would get from a dead trout —so I would appreciate if you could attempt to answer my question by publishing a blog post on Midas Oracle.

Best regards,

Chris Masse, bombastic blogger

http://www.midasoracle.org/

AskMarkets links its event derivative traders with FaceBook.

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:52:47 +0000

AskMarkets

George Tziralis’s post

A brand-new New York Times article about the social networking websites (like FaceBook and LinkedIn) and the age of “ambient awareness”.

SOMEWHAT RELATED APPENDIX: I agree with our good friend Robert Scoble.

Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:08:12 +0000

Our good friend George Tziralis:

Markets bring people together, they sum up their information and transmit it through prices.

[A prediction market is] a tool which can aggregate the opinions and knowledge of the many and transform these into a meaningful result.

Markets arise as the ideal tool to crowdsource cognitive tasks and arrive at consensus results which are typically proven to be more accurate or correct than the opinions of the few experts, as suggested by both theory, experiments and practice.

Beautifully said.

AskMarkets

“Don’t ask the experts. Ask the prediction markets. They know better.”

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:27:41 +0000

I would rather say: Trust the experts, but do use an information aggregation mechanism to average their forecasts, so that you eliminate extreme forecasts.

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Ask Markets

“Don’t ask the experts. Ask the prediction markets. They know better.”

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 05 May 2008 23:37:20 +0000

George Tziralis should have refined a bit the statement he made in the first video below —statement which I have slightly modified in the title above. We need inputs from the primary, advanced indicators, the experts, and the prediction markets. We need all of that. The prediction markets will never eliminate either the polls or the experts. The prediction markets come as a supplement in the mix.
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Ask Markets