Tag Archives: Asia

The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 6 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Right-click the chart to get the latest probabilities: NHK WORLD TV live on USTREAM. PREVIOUSLY: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. … Continue reading

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The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Ishibashi Katsuhiko: I had warned that a major earthquake would strike the Chuetsu region around Kashiwazaki, Niigata Prefecture, and about the fundamental vulnerability of nuclear power plants. The 6.8 magnitude temblor of July 16 caused considerable damage to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa … Continue reading

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There is a bank run in South Korea right now. – [VIDEO]

And the US media are not covering it. It might spread to Asia.

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Peter Schiff on gold and silver surge, dollar falls, Barack Obama in Asia, etc.

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Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.

[IMPORTANT NOTE: This present post is critical of one point expressed by Nigel Eccles, but, overall, I like this Scottish guy, and I enjoy HubDub's prediction markets a lot.] – Nigel Eccles: Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future … Continue reading

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LET’S REVISIT HISTORY: In May 2007, Harvard professor of economics Kenneth Rogoff laughed in Paul Wolfowitz’s face.

BACKGROUND INFO: Kenneth Rogoff is a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and professor of economics at Harvard University. – May 2007′s Blog Post: INSIDER TRADING: World Bank employees speculating on the Paul Wolfowitz event derivatives at InTrade-TradeSports?? – - … Continue reading

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Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

- Asia Times: [...] Outperforming Taiwan’s polls shouldn’t be hard. They’re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’s prediction markets did … Continue reading

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Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so the prices can be read as a percent likelihood of an event occurring.

I have noticed in the past that Reuters was the only reporting organization, besides Midas Oracle, to use the term, “prediction exchanges“. I like that. I think Reuters are great. Psstt… “on the likelihood of the outcome of a partially … Continue reading

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Is NewsFutures the first Western prediction market firm to bring prediction markets to Asia?

Of course, there are prediction market scholars and entrepreneurs in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and India. But was NewFutures the first Western prediction market company to export its services to Asia? In 2004, NewsFutures got their first Asian client, Dentsu … Continue reading

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Ariadne Capital = Global Investment and Advisory Firm

Ariadne Capital: Ariadne Capital is an Investment and Advisory Firm focused on Software and Services, New Media, Communications and Life Services. We are backed by 40 Entrepreneurs who founded the firm in 2000 in order to build the market leading … Continue reading

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