Tag Archives: Andrew Leigh

What do prediction markets say about unemployment and swine flu in Australia?

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 3, 2009 — Leave a Comment

“Unfortunately, we don’t know, because such markets do not currently exist.” – Andrew Leigh

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Australia, betting markets, event derivative markets, prediction markets

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

Prediction markets = A tool for quantifying the conventional wisdom

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 10, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Eric Zitzewitz responded to Paul Krugman:
Almost all of the serious people who study or work with these markets are not in the “markets are magic” camp.
My work in this area (with Justin Wolfers usually and Andrew Leigh and Erik Snowberg occassionally) uses these markets as a way of quantifying the conventional wisdom.
This has more value [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Also tagged Clinton, Collective Intelligence, collective wisdom, conventional wisdom, Dartmouth College, Eric Zitzewitz , Assoc., Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Felix Salmon, Iowa, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, Paul Krugman, prediction markets, Project Manager, software projects, wisdom of crowds

2007 Australian political elections: Polls vs Bookmakers

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 30, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Andrew Leigh:
[...] the polls got 12 seats wrong, while the markets got 7 seats wrong [...]
Previously: Justin Wolfers Country has turned Left… as predicted by the prediction markets.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Betting | Also tagged Australia, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets

Australian economist and Justin Wolfers pal Andrew Leigh strikes at the CoRE Economist blogger.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 12, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The CoRE Economist blogger has just output an item on Google’s internal prediction markets. The reason why the guy has just discovered it is that there has been a problem with the Google Blog where Bo Cowgill’s testimony was published, and all the old stuff went alive again in the Google Reader (at least, maybe [...]

Posted in Humor | Also tagged author, CoRE Economist, economist, Google, Joshua Gans, Justin Wolfers, Melbourne Business School, prediction markets

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It.

Written by Michael Giberson on June 9, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Prediction markets work well in some cases and less well in others. The Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh article appearing in The Melborne Review states the pertinent point: “attempts to set up markets on topics where there are insiders with substantial information advantages have typically failed” because the presence of highly informed insiders will [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged Bet, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, reading, Super Bowl, Tony Soprano, Washington Post

Steve Levitt and Tyler Cowen’s darling Justin Wolfers is doing in Australia what he should have been doing in the U.S. from day one: LOBBYING FOR LEGALIZING FOR-PROFIT REAL-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 8, 2007 — 4 Comments

Via his Australian co-writer Andrew Leigh, Prediction markets for business and public policy (PDF file).
Read prawf Tom Bell’s take on the prediction market petition, circa last month, for more info.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Australia, co-writer, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, Steve Levitt, Tom Bell, Tyler Cowen, United States

With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 25, 2007 — 5 Comments

The American: A Bettor World – Once apprenticed to a bookie, Justin Wolfers of Wharton now draws economic insight from the behavior of gamblers.
[...] Last year, for instance, the aggregate of small bettors who placed wagers on electoral results on TradeSports, a Web-based market, forecasted the outcome of every U.S. Senate race correctly. Companies like [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Explainers | Also tagged Best Buy, economist, electronics retailer, Iraq, Justin Wolfers, location, oil, oil dividend, oil price spike, online prediction market, prediction markets, senior VP, United States, United States Senate, Web-based market

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.

Written by George Tziralis on May 21, 2007 — 1 Comment

In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California.
The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program and complete list of papers to be presented are available here, while directly related to prediction [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Betting, Economics, Gambling | Also tagged Athens University of Economics and Business, Australian National University, Bob Erikson, California, Chris Wlezien, Columbia, Columbia University, Eric Zitzewitz, Feng Zhou, George Mason University, Hebrew University, Iowa, Jakob Bergfjord, Joyce E. Berg, Justin Wolfers, National Football League, New York University, Norwegian School of Economics, Palm Desert, Pennsylvania, Philip O'Connor, prediction markets, Raphael Markellos, Ricard Gil, Robin Hanson, Ryan Oprea, Santa Cruz, Stanford University, Stefan Luckner, Steve Levitt, Temple University, Tom Gruca, University of California at Santa Cruz, University of Chicago, University of Iowa, University of Karlsruhe, University of Pennsylvania, University of Waikato, University of Westminster, Vasiliki A. Makropoulou, World Cup, Yahoo!

FOUR U.S. SCHOLARS ACCUSED OF ANTI-BETFAIR BIAS

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 15, 2007 — 1 Comment

My questions to Yiling Chen, John Ledyard, David Pennock and Eric Zitzewitz (alias “The Quartet”):
- Why is it that BetFair (the world’s #1 prediction exchange, a.k.a. betting exchange) is not cited?
- Could you share with us evidence that the BetFair prediction markets are not accurate (if that’s the reason why BetFair is not cited)?
- Would [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry) | Also tagged Australia, ConsensusPoint, Corning, David Pennock, Eli Lilly, Eric Zitzewitz (The Quartet), Google, HP, InklingMarkets, John Ledyard, Journal of Prediction Markets, Justin Wolfers, Microsoft, NewsFutures, prediction market software solutions, prediction markets, public prediction markets, TradeSports, United Kingdom, United States, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen

Tag Archives: Andrew Leigh

What do prediction markets say about unemployment and swine flu in Australia?

Prediction markets = A tool for quantifying the conventional wisdom

2007 Australian political elections: Polls vs Bookmakers

Australian economist and Justin Wolfers pal Andrew Leigh strikes at the CoRE Economist blogger.

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It.

Steve Levitt and Tyler Cowen’s darling Justin Wolfers is doing in Australia what he should have been doing in the U.S. from day one: LOBBYING FOR LEGALIZING FOR-PROFIT REAL-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES.

With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate.

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.

FOUR U.S. SCHOLARS ACCUSED OF ANTI-BETFAIR BIAS

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