Tag Archives: Andrew Leigh

What do prediction markets say about unemployment and swine flu in Australia?

“Unfortunately, we don’t know, because such markets do not currently exist.” – Andrew Leigh

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The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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Prediction markets = A tool for quantifying the conventional wisdom

Eric Zitzewitz responded to Paul Krugman: Almost all of the serious people who study or work with these markets are not in the “markets are magic” camp. My work in this area (with Justin Wolfers usually and Andrew Leigh and … Continue reading

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2007 Australian political elections: Polls vs Bookmakers

Andrew Leigh: [...] the polls got 12 seats wrong, while the markets got 7 seats wrong [...] Previously: Justin Wolfers Country has turned Left… as predicted by the prediction markets.

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Australian economist and Justin Wolfers pal Andrew Leigh strikes at the CoRE Economist blogger.

The CoRE Economist blogger has just output an item on Google’s internal prediction markets. The reason why the guy has just discovered it is that there has been a problem with the Google Blog where Bo Cowgill’s testimony was published, … Continue reading

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Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It.

Prediction markets work well in some cases and less well in others. The Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh article appearing in The Melborne Review states the pertinent point: “attempts to set up markets on topics where there are insiders with … Continue reading

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Steve Levitt and Tyler Cowen’s darling Justin Wolfers is doing in Australia what he should have been doing in the U.S. from day one: LOBBYING FOR LEGALIZING FOR-PROFIT REAL-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES.

Via his Australian co-writer Andrew Leigh, Prediction markets for business and public policy (PDF file). Read prawf Tom Bell’s take on the prediction market petition, circa last month, for more info.

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With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate.

The American: A Bettor World – Once apprenticed to a bookie, Justin Wolfers of Wharton now draws economic insight from the behavior of gamblers. [...] Last year, for instance, the aggregate of small bettors who placed wagers on electoral results … Continue reading

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The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.

In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California. The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program … Continue reading

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FOUR U.S. SCHOLARS ACCUSED OF ANTI-BETFAIR BIAS

My questions to Yiling Chen, John Ledyard, David Pennock and Eric Zitzewitz (alias “The Quartet”): – Why is it that BetFair (the world’s #1 prediction exchange, a.k.a. betting exchange) is not cited? – Could you share with us evidence that … Continue reading

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