Tag Archives: analyst

ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets

Posted on May 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ABC 20/20 featuring InTrade – (May 9, 2008) Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets — (4 pages in all) ABC video YouTube video – Not a single word about InTrade-TradeSports fucking up its traders during the North Korea Missile episode. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

I’m a big believer in the market, that it is the best way of aggregating information. Due to the law of supply and demand and profit-seeking, it has a better idea of what a price should be than any other way of determining prices.

Posted on February 8, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Brian Shiau (of The Sim Exchange) interviewed by Reuters. Shiau hired an analyst, Jesse Divnich, to help interpret the exchange’s data and provide commentary. Jesse Divnich’s research reports I like that. I think it should be made a rule that … Continue reading →

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Niall O’Connor, the one-data-point analyst

Posted on January 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here is what Niall O’Connor has published on his site:

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Wanna infiltrate the media with exchange odds? Hire an analyst, and he/she’ll spin them.

Posted on November 12, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Game Informer: 7. On each platform, what will be the biggest seller? Jesse Divnich (of The Sim Exchange): The prediction market has made that pretty clear. Wii – Mario Galaxy – 2.0 and 1.99 million units for November and December … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Making on BetFair

Posted on August 16, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Via our faithful reader Rajesh R. Kallidumbil, the BetFair forum (click on “General Betting” – below are the best excerpts of the discussion): Public traded companies acting marketmakers. fair? alika 08 Aug 10:41 A Swedish public company traded on the … Continue reading →

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The Sim Exchange has hired an analyst specialized in the video game industry.

Posted on July 30, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Jesse Divnich

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EPS Prediction Markets = Earnings Per Share Prediction Markets — Google

Posted on July 2, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The top 10 most active prediction markets at HedgeStreet: Contracts – Time remaining – Underlaying Delayed Price – Bid – Ask – Last – Change 4PM $100 GBP/USD > 2.0075 4h 13m 2.01370 95.00 100.00 95.00 29% 4PM $100 EUR/USD … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

The Sim Exchange and Midas Oracle both made it in CNET News.

Posted on May 18, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

CNET News: [...] It turned out that Shiau’s predictions weren’t perfect–on average he was about 15 percent off on the sales of Nintendo’s DS and Wii, Sony’s PlayStation 3 and PlayStation Portable and Microsoft’s Xbox 360. But he also wasn’t … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Expiry, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

NPD releases April sales data, prediction market and analyst compared

Posted on May 18, 2007 by Brian Shiau

Last month was the first month the simExchange (the free to play video game stock market game) has traded monthly hybrid futures contracts to predict NPD US video game sales data. In this trial run, trading on the simExchange appeared … Continue reading →

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The Sim Exchange’s predictions more accurate than Lazard Capital Markets and Wedbush Morgan’s ones.

Posted on April 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Brian Shiau, on a Gaming publication: [...] Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian had predicted March sales in the US to be flat. On the other hand Michael Pachter [of Wedbush Morgan] was expecting growth, forecasting Wii sales at 400k, … Continue reading →

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