Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Analysis (Data) – Sports / Politics Corruption

Is Big Brother being fixed in Great Britain? And are the alleged fixers using BetFair to make a fast buck (or “quid”, as they say in the U.K.)?

Via Ed, The Daily Mail:
The Daily Star reveals that some punters are set to earn more than half a million pounds after a total bet of £971 was staked via BetFair on Nikki to win at 1000-1 shortly after she was voted out of the house. [...]
Rumours of ‘insider dealing’ on BetFair chat forums continue [...]

Extreme Prediction Markets & Ethics

While Robin Hanson was busy signing Bob’s petitions and blablabling on philosophy, Jason Ruspini answered the questions.
Jason Ruspini (“The Brain”) has established himself as one of the experts in the field of prediction markets. Listen up.
-
1-2) These markets could have insider trading restrictions and forced settlement w/ new contract set.
.
3-4) The CFTC/NFA could monitor [...]

Did Patri Friedman misread BetFair?

About the latest New York Times story on BetFair fighting sports corruption…
Patri Friedman:
Prediction markets not only make fixing easier to profit from, by creating a liquid market for insider betting, but they also make it easier to detect, by creating a centralized database of betting for analysis: [...]
So. the effects are mixed, and in the [...]

Tennis is not systematically nor institutionally corrupt. There is no evidence of a link to the Mafia.

Only 45 suspicious tennis matches out of the hundreds of thousands of matches played over the last five years.
That’s peanuts.
-
Via Steve Roman
Bloomberg
New York Times
The Times (of London)
The Guardian
-
Previously: The Mark Davies speech on sports, corruption, sports betting, and BetFair
-

BetFair’s message to the UK’s Gambling Commission on betting and the integrity of sports

Via Medemi (109 comments on their thread, and still growing), BetFair (PDF file):
3 August 2007
Integrity in Sports Betting Issues Paper Consultation Co-ordinator Gambling Commission Victoria Square House Victoria Square Birmingham B2 4BP
Dear Sir/Madam,
INTEGRITY IN SPORTS BETTING ISSUES PAPER – BETFAIR RESPONSE
I am writing on behalf of Betfair in response to the Commission’s “Issues” paper of [...]

If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market).

Mark Davies of BetFair (PDF file):
International Leaders in Sport conference, Auckland, New Zealand. April 3-4th 2008.
Keynote speech, April 4th. Mark Davies, Betfair.
“New Understandings in Sports Betting”
Minister, ladies and gentlemen… Thank you very much for your kind invitation to speak to you today. I have once before been asked by sport to address it, as a [...]

Towards an anti-drugs and anti-corruption body for all sports? — BetFair’s proposal…

Play The Game [I like that website title ]:
Betting industry leader calls for sport world anti-corruption agency
8 April 2008
by Michael Herborn
Mark Davies, managing director of global betting giant Betfair, has called for a world anti-corruption agency for sport. He envisions that the anti-corruption agency would operate along the same lines as the World [...]

Do sports prediction markets corrupt sport? No.

Mark Davies (“managing director of corporate affairs at BetFair” = their spin doctor) in The Guardian:
Does the existence of betting exchanges corrupt sport?
NO
In the world of finance, it has always been far easier for employees to have a negative impact on a company’s share price than a positive one. Even a chief executive would be [...]

GUARDIAN BLOGGER: BETFAIR SPIN-DOCTOR DOES NOT SAY THE TRUTH ABOUT SPORTS CORRUPTION.

Lawrence Donegan:
Odds-on liquidity showing interest in Scottish youth
Can it really be more than a month since Betfair’s Mark Davies appeared in print to reject the suggestion that the gambling boom is in any way responsible for the apparent increase in corruption in sport, by pointing out that dodgy dealing has been around since the days [...]

BetFair-TradeFair fights corruption, while TradeSports-InTrade does not.


BetFair-TradeFair is legal and has ethics, while TradeSports-InTrade is not and has none.

Via Steve Roman who provides the recap and another excerpt, The New York Times:
[...] At the center of the investigation is Betfair, one of the largest so-called online sports exchanges, which matches bettors directly against each other, rather than against the house, as [...]

Search

Post Categories