[...] One of the biggest findings was that an employee’s trading performance was most strongly correlated with the trading results of the other Googlers around him (or her). Friends and other coworkers who were not sitting in close proximity played a significantly smaller role.

I attended the [American Economic Association] session in New Orleans on Friday where Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth showed off the paper (co-written by Justin Wolfers of Wharton and Bo Cowgill, a project manager at Google who came up with the idea to run the markets) and here is an eye-popping chart similar to one from the presentation that best illustrates their finding of information sharing in close quarters. [...]

Zubin Jelveh tells me that the Google blog will soon feature a regression chart that shows off the information clusters.

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill (Google economic analyst), Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)

The “Prediction Markets–New Empirical Findings” session, organized by Eric Zitzewitz, of Stanford University Dartmouth College, is slated to include:

• BO COWGILL, Google, JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania, and ERIC ZITZEWITZ, Stanford University–Prediction Markets Inside the Firm: Evidence From Google
• FORREST NELSON and PHILIP POLGREEN, University of Iowa–Predicting Flu: Prediction Markets vs. Biostatistical Models
• PAUL TETLOCK, University of Texas-Austin–Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency?
• RICARD GIL, University of California-Santa Cruz, and STEVEN LEVITT, University of Chicago–Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup

In addition to Zitzewitz and Wolfers, paper discussants include CHARLES PLOTT, Caltech, and ROBIN HANSON, George Mason University.

Sounds like quite the party. I predict that the good times will roll.

Via Lance Fortnow, who blogs on annual conferences, and how it does good to an entire field.

Technical Note: See, I’m typing this in Word Press, and before I press “Publish”, I put the date of the alert in the “RS Event” plugin interface (2007-01-05). It should now appear in the sidebar, under “Upcoming Events” —and will disappear automatically at that date.

Don’t you love the Web, HedgeStreet?

—

Addendum: I’m an idiot. I had selected “2006″.

I’ve just seen that, today, browsing the Web. What is hilarious, actually, is that he wrote that entry on November 6, 2006, once it was clear that I would not publicize his conference. “He thought he had nothing to lose and then declared war”, as someone has told me. What the readers of his crappy e-mailing list don’t know is that, just ten days ago, that personage and another had implored me to give airtime to their conference.

What this guy does not disclose to the readership of his crappy e-mailing list, also, is that he is paid money by a firm that I have criticized over the summer.

Note To My Readers: As I am dedicated to providing a wide coverage about prediction markets, since 2004, you can imagine that it’s not without mixed emotions that I would censor any thing of importance or urgency. Here’s what the American Economic Association’s directory wrote about my prediction market vortal:

This site offers a variety of material for those interested in “prediction markets” (markets where participants trade instruments whose price reflects the probability of future events). While somewhat opinionated, many will likely find it useful for its breadth of coverage.

Why Did Chris Masse Censor? Well, the anecdote above provides a clue. It’s all about ethics. You should understand that I have a big readership, and that, when people read something on my website or blog, they think that Chris Masse is endorsing that stuff. I should thus be careful. I made my decision based on many findings, and I’m in peace with my soul, and that’s all what matters to me.

Anyway.

Let’s move on to more interesting topics.

Did JC Kommer find a way to game Robin Hanson’s MSR?