Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Alexander Tabarrok

Libertarian baiting

CFM hated it when Peter McCluskey wrote:
What many of us want from prediction markets bears more resemblance to the products of think-tanks than it does to any other institution that I’m aware of
But this reminds me of something. When has a pro-market think tank ever subjected its policy recommendations to market evaluation? Never, as far [...]

Believe in Pascal’s wager? Have I got a deal for you! – by Alexander Tabarrok

Believe in Pascal’s wager? Have I got a deal for you! – (PDF) – by Alexander Tabarrok
CONCLUSIONS: Pascal’s wager is initially compelling because “believing” in God appears to be costless. Believing in the possibility of infinite utility, however, implies that the believer is willing to accept any finite cost to achieve any positive probability, no [...]

Search

Post Categories