Midas Oracle .ORG » Alberta http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 17:20:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/29/prediction-markets-forrester/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/29/prediction-markets-forrester/#comments Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:08:16 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7567 Continue reading →]]> Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.

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The Forrester executive summary:

The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous; as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

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For information on hard-copy or electronic reprints, please contact the Client Resource Center at +1 866.367.7378, +1 617.617.5730, or resourcecenter –at– forrester –dot– com. We offer quantity discounts and special pricing for academic and nonprofit institutions.

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APPENDIX #1: Prediction Markets – DRM Review

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APPENDIX #2:

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Here is a list of companies that provide software for prediction markets:

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Inkling Markets – (MSR + AMM)

NewsFutures – (CDA + optional AMM + SR)

Xpree – (MSR + AMM)

Zocalo – (CDA + MSR + AMM) – (open-source)

Nosco – (CDA + MSR + AMM)

QMarkets – (MSR + AMM)

Ask Markets – (MSR + AMM)

Exago Markets – (CDA + optional AMM)

Gexid – (?)

ProKons – (?)

Spigit – (?)

HSX Virtual Markets – (Virtual Specialist + AMM)

HubDub – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

Yahoo!‘s Prediction Exchange – (MSR + AMM + DPMM) – (not licensed)

Google‘s Prediction Exchange – (CDA) – (not licensed)

MicroSoft PredictionPoint – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

InTrade – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

TradeSports – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

Iowa Electronic Markets – (CDA) – (not licensed)

HedgeStreet – (CDA) – (not licensed)

TradeFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

BetFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

Trading Technologies International – (CDA) – (not for event derivatives)

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Here’s a list of prediction market consultants:

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Robin Hanson – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)

  • Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
  • “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

  • Adam Siegel
  • Nathan Kontny

NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

Xpree – (California, U.S.A.)

Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

Justin Wolfers – (University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

  • Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
  • The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

Koleman Strumpf – (University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

  • Koleman Strumpf — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
  • Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
  • “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

  • Jesper Krogstrup
  • Oliver Bernhard Pedersen

Qmarkets – (Israel)

  • Noam Danon

Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

HP Services & HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

  • Prediction market consultancy firm
  • Movie business

IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

  • Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

ProKons – (Germany, E.U.)

  • Peter Gollowitsch

Exago Markets – (Portugal, E.U.)

  • Pedro Da Cunha

NimaniX – (Israel)

  • Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

Michael Giberson – (Texas, U.S.A.)

Other Consulting Firms

McKinsey – (U.S.A.)

Accenture – (U.S.A.)

Gartner – (U.S.A.)

Forrester – (U.S.A.)

The Boston Consulting Group – (U.S.A.)

CapGemini – (U.S.A.)

KPMG – (U.S.A.)

Price Waterhouse Cooper – (U.S.A.)

Ernst & Young – (U.S.A.)

Deloitte – (U.S.A.)

IBM – (U.S.A.)

EDS – (U.S.A.)

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/29/prediction-markets-forrester/feed/ 2 Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/29/enterprise-prediction-markets-3/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/29/enterprise-prediction-markets-3/#comments Thu, 29 May 2008 16:01:14 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7096 Continue reading →]]> Consultants

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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

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Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

  • Prediction market consultancy firm
  • Movie business

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Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

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Robin Hanson – (George Mason U., Virginia, U.S.A.)

  • Robin Hanson — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
  • “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

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Justin Wolfers – (U. of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

  • Justin Wolfers — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
  • The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

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Koleman Strumpf – (U. of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

  • Koleman Strumpf — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
  • “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

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Michael Giberson – (Virginia, U.S.A.)

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Robert Hahn – (American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.)

  • Robert Hahn — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Robert Hahn does consulting focused on improving decision making in the private and public sector. “This work builds on our evolving understanding of prediction markets and other economic tools.”

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IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

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Mercury Research and Consulting – (United Kingdom, E.U.)

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Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

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Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

  • Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

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Qmarkets – (Israel)

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ProKons – (Germany)

  • Peter Gollowitsch

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Hive Insight – (Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. & London, U.K., E.U.)

  • Robert Wilburn (ex-NewsFutures)

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Foresight Markets – (??)

  • BPH Technologies

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NimaniX – (Israel)

  • Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

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PrediCom – (London, United Kingdom, E.U.)

  • Mikael Edholm

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/29/enterprise-prediction-markets-3/feed/ 0 Is HSX the “longest continuously operating prediction market”??? – REDUX http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/23/is-hsx-the-%e2%80%9clongest-continuously-operating-prediction-market%e2%80%9d-redux/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/23/is-hsx-the-%e2%80%9clongest-continuously-operating-prediction-market%e2%80%9d-redux/#comments Thu, 23 Nov 2006 11:40:35 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/23/is-hsx-the-%e2%80%9clongest-continuously-operating-prediction-market%e2%80%9d-redux/ Continue reading →]]> This is a copy of the story that I ran on the sidebar blog, in mid-October:

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From the HSX site feed:

Hollywood Stock Exchange is an integrated marketing, research and technology company driven by its patented entertainment stock market, HSX.com, the longest continuously operating prediction market.

Reality Check:

Foresight Exchange – (FX, FSX) – (Alberta, Canada) — URL: IdeoSphere – Alternate URL: Idea Futures — Launched in 1994 by Ken Kittlitz, Sean Morgan, Mark James, Greg James, David McFadzean and Duane Hewitt — Godfathered by Robin Hanson (a prediction market co-inventor)

Hollywood Stock Exchange – (HSX) – (L.A., California, U.S.A.) — URL: HSX — HSX Movies – HSX Community — CDA with an automated market maker (AMM) that balances buy/sell orders by generating both buy and sell orders, which keep the market maker in balance as well. — HSX is a play-money prediction exchange with a game, IPO-like interface. — Owned by Cantor Fitzgerald — Founded in 1996 by Max Keiser and Michael Burns

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And, now, here’s my today’s blog post:

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The sub-title of the HSX site feed has just been slightly amended to read, now:

Hollywood Stock Exchange is an integrated marketing, research and technology company driven by its patented entertainment stock market, HSX.com, the longest continuously operating commercial prediction market

The adjective “commercial” has been added.

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My Question: In light of Robin Hanson’s call for the right definitions (“Prediction Markets Definitions”, his blog post here, at Midas Oracle), what do you make of the HSX line?

My Answer: Since veterans Iowa Electronic Markets and Foresight Exchange were (and are still) non-commercial operations, I’m fine with the brand-new HSX line. (Nota Bene: The for-profit consulting firm Consensus Point was born recently from the Foresight Exchange technology, as you all know.) I would just prefer the term “EXCHANGE”, as in, “HSX, the longest continuously operating commercial prediction exchange“. Let’s check next month, in December 2006, whether they make another change —probably not, this time.

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MORE LINKS: See CFM for the complete lists of prediction market consultants and prediction exchanges. Alternatively, see AEI-Brookings’s mini-directory or the Wikipedia entry on prediction markets.

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HAPPY THANKSGIVING. GOBBLE, GOBBLE.

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Addendum (November 29): Chris Hibbert has posted a comment…

The precursor to the Foresight Exchange (FX), was known as IF (for “Idea Futures”). IF was created in 1994, and the transition to FX happened in July 1996, according to my mail archives. So I would say that the veracity of HSX’s claim to be the longest CONTINUOUSLY OPERATING exchange depends on whether they started before or after July 24, 1996. The transition from IF to FX attempted to maintain account balances and markets that were already in operation, but there were some glitches.

Others might point to the fact that they did maintain account balances and running markets through the transition (however rocky the transition might have been) to say that FX is a continuously operating successor to IF, no different than any other software rev.

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Addendum 2 (November 29): I got it from the Horse’s mouth that “HSX was founded on April 12, 1996“.

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Addendum 3 (November 29): Ken Kittlitz, the co-founder of the Foresight Exchange, has sent me this clarification…

The transition from IF to FX occurred on July 4th, 1996. We preserved as much data as we could, including all open claims, the entire ticker history, and a fair number of user accounts. As Chris notes, the transition was somewhat rocky. However, I consider it an upgrade to the original system rather than the creation of a distinct new system.

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