Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: AEI-Brookings Joint Center

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS.

Bob Hahn turns lead into gold.

Via Google’s Bo Cowgill, Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal (mirror at AEI-Brookings – mirror at AEI):
[...] These markets often predict more accurately than experts. Why? They draw on the knowledge of people who might otherwise be ignored. Their anonymity frees participants from pressures to [...]

Economists’ Petition on Prediction Markets

Statement on Prediction Markets – (Click here to read the abstract and download the petition from the SSRN site) – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, [...]

Statement on Prediction Markets

The AEI-Brookings Joint Center recently issued a statement on prediction markets signed by leading scholars in the field. In it, we argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has [...]

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