Midas Oracle .ORG » Add new tag http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:24:30 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/03/conditional-likelihood-loss-intrade-hubdub-nate-silver-oscars-2009/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/03/conditional-likelihood-loss-intrade-hubdub-nate-silver-oscars-2009/#comments Tue, 03 Mar 2009 18:55:22 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13120 - Nate Silver: 0.6032

- InTrade: 0.3699

- HubDub: 0.2237

HubDub beats both InTrade and Nate Silver.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/03/conditional-likelihood-loss-intrade-hubdub-nate-silver-oscars-2009/feed/ 0 A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/23/a-mystery-wrapped-in-a-riddle-inside-an-enigma/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/23/a-mystery-wrapped-in-a-riddle-inside-an-enigma/#comments Mon, 23 Feb 2009 18:34:05 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13015 How come HubDub managed to get it right, when all the major prediction exchanges (BetFair, HSX, InTrade, NewsFutures, and even Nate Silver) all saw Mickey Rourke?

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/23/a-mystery-wrapped-in-a-riddle-inside-an-enigma/feed/ 5 InTrade DOT NET — www.intrade.net http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/28/intrade-dot-net/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/28/intrade-dot-net/#comments Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:19:09 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8644 Continue reading →]]> This post is a very short review of their new website. I might publish a deeper review, later on.

The log line is that InTrade CEO John Delaney has ingested all the innovations that HubDub has brought to the prediction market scene since January 2007 (e.g., long and rich prediction market webpages that are indexed by the search engines, and use of social networking to boost trading) and has asked his technological team to clone those innovations for InTrade. This is great. I also appreciate that their charting system is satisfying. (The advanced charts seem to be of the right size, I have noticed. Neither too small, nor too big.)

On the negative side, the execution is not as good as it should be —and I’m polite. But to be fair with them, they say their website is still in “beta” —so let’s give them time to improve their work.

Overall, it’s a good move, and it shows, as I have said for months, that Nigel Eccles of HubDub is having a profound impact on the prediction market industry.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that InTrade.net presents probabilities expressed in percentage, not prices, which they also took from HubDub.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/28/intrade-dot-net/feed/ 3 The best blogs on prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/08/the-best-blogs-on-prediction-markets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/08/the-best-blogs-on-prediction-markets/#comments Sun, 08 Jun 2008 16:22:33 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7190 Continue reading →]]> CFM: Blogs

Midas Oracle: Links

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Send me your blog URL, if you write on prediction markets —and I’ll Include it in the list (maybe :-D ).

The new kid on the block is The Quantified Pundit. Great blog name. :-D Bookmark it, and subscribe to its site feed. I recommend it highly.

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Quite a small list.

Maybe, in the next update, I’ll add The Washington Wire from the WSJ. They seem to go the Wolfers route. WIll see.

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/08/the-best-blogs-on-prediction-markets/feed/ 0 BetFair would be better off getting inspiration from Google. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/25/betfair-google-evil/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/25/betfair-google-evil/#comments Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:46:29 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6728 Section 2.3 (k) of the BetFair API agreement says you can’t make a product which promotes any other prediction exchange. That’s evil, because it means we will never have any multi-exchange, order-entry and analysis software package for (real-money and play-money) prediction markets.

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