Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Acting Chairman

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts” —a.k.a. event derivative markets, event futures markets, betting markets, bet markets, prediction markets

Via professor Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth (one of the top 5 economists studying prediction markets), the CFTC:
Release: 5493-08
For Release: May 1, 2008
CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts”
Washington, DC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is asking for public comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets [...]

Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?

That sounds like a good prediction market proposal.
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As you all know:

The SEC regulates the securities markets (which support capital formation).
The CFTC regulates the futures markets (which exist to discover prices).
The SEC is rules based, meaning it sets regulations that institutions must follow, while the CFTC is principles based, in that it sets broad [...]

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