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Posts

• Category: All Best Posts Ever
  • Building Exits into CFTC Regulation May 20th, 2008 (7)
  • Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks. May 18th, 2008 (5)
  • ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets May 16th, 2008
  • WET BLANKET OR BUBBLE BUSTER? — Charles Plott (a big-shot economist) condemns all the hype surrounding the prediction markets and the wisdom of crowds. May 13th, 2008 (1)
  • Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15. May 7th, 2008 (1)
  • Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets May 7th, 2008
  • CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon. May 3rd, 2008 (15)
  • CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts” —a.k.a. event derivative markets, event futures markets, betting markets, bet markets, prediction markets May 1st, 2008
  • 2020’s PREDICTION MARKET JOURNALISM = Polls + Experts + Prediction Markets April 30th, 2008
  • If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market). April 28th, 2008 (183)
  • Prediction Markets: Powerful enough to be dangerous? April 24th, 2008
  • The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet April 21st, 2008
  • The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets — The McKinsey conference should have been rooted in the economic science and McKinsey should have invited economists. April 16th, 2008 (2)
  • Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized. April 14th, 2008 (3)
  • New Product Innovation: Enterprise Prediction Markets Can Help. April 13th, 2008
  • How accurate are prediction markets in US elections? April 13th, 2008
  • A picture worth 10,979 words? April 10th, 2008
  • Re-read Mike’s testimony slowly, and then you’ll get which consumers’ need(s) prediction market journalism should fulfill. April 2nd, 2008 (5)
  • Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. March 27th, 2008
  • A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. March 27th, 2008
  • Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? March 26th, 2008 (12)
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !?? March 19th, 2008 (1)
  • BetFair’s new bet-matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples March 19th, 2008 (4)
  • BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples March 19th, 2008 (11)
  • BetFair withdraws / improves its brand-new matching-bet logic, which was (kind of) endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board. March 19th, 2008 (9)
  • Proponents say the creativity and anonymous nature of a prediction market attracts respondents that would normally shy away from or ignore a traditional survey. March 18th, 2008
  • With the multiples, BetFair takes the role of a bookmaker. March 17th, 2008 (1)
  • BetFair’s new bet-matching logic March 17th, 2008
  • BetFair’s brand-new matching-bet logic is endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board. March 14th, 2008 (31)
  • BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching. March 13th, 2008 (3)
  • Developing a Business Case for Enterprise Prediction Markets March 13th, 2008 (2)
  • What are enterprise prediction markets for? March 6th, 2008
  • Prediction Market Journalism March 1st, 2008 (6)
  • When Markets Beat The Polls - Scientific American Magazine February 27th, 2008
  • Linear Programming - Combined Value Trading - Parimutuel Call Market - Combinatorial Call Markets February 26th, 2008 (2)
  • The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming February 19th, 2008 (4)
  • Intrade, with carry February 18th, 2008 (1)
  • Tax Futures - Jason Ruspini Edition February 16th, 2008 (2)
  • Tax Futures, "In Real Life" February 7th, 2008 (3)
  • BetFair Starting Price = Simplified Trading —just like MSR is, but without an AMM. February 2nd, 2008 (1)
  • Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo February 2nd, 2008 (11)
  • BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price February 1st, 2008 (1)
  • Implied Probability of an Outcome –BetFair Edition January 30th, 2008 (5)
  • NewsFutures do *NOT* favor event derivative management by traders. January 29th, 2008 (16)
  • P(election) = P(nomination) * P(election conditional on nomination) January 27th, 2008
  • Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy January 25th, 2008 (2)
  • Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101 January 22nd, 2008 (1)
  • Robin Hanson’s concept of… Info Value January 14th, 2008 (1)
  • Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy January 14th, 2008
  • Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets January 14th, 2008
  • Defining Probability in Prediction Markets January 13th, 2008 (4)
  • Prediction Markets 101 January 12th, 2008
  • Prediction Markets 101 — Chapter One: Interpreting The Probabilistic Predictions January 12th, 2008
  • NewsFutures’ Emile Servan-Schreiber has two lines of defense for the prediction markets. January 12th, 2008 (3)
  • GIGO and prophets, tears and markets January 11th, 2008
  • Five Reasons the Prediction Market Critics Are Wrong. January 10th, 2008 (3)
  • Prediction markets = A tool for quantifying the conventional wisdom January 10th, 2008
  • Prediction markets are not worst, and more often, at least slightly better, than the other forecasting tools. January 9th, 2008
  • The prediction markets reflect the polls and the national media. January 9th, 2008
  • Micro-geography analysis of trading in Google’s enterprise prediction markets January 8th, 2008 (1)
  • The future of futurism: crowds or entrepreneurs? January 2nd, 2008
  • In a truly efficient prediction market, the price will come to reflect the influence of all available information. December 30th, 2007
  • Amateur Experts (Yahoo! Answers) Vs. Wisdom Of Crowds & Collective Intelligence (Wikipedia) December 21st, 2007
  • Amateur Journalists (Bloggers) Vs. Professional Journalists (Media) Vs. Wisdom Of Crowds & Collective Intelligence (Wikipedia) December 21st, 2007 (1)
  • Text Mining and Prediction Markets December 9th, 2007 (6)
  • The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming. December 9th, 2007
  • InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones. December 8th, 2007 (2)
  • Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets December 6th, 2007 (2)
  • TradeFair Binaries User Guide - What is Trading? November 30th, 2007
  • BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets — CFM’s Views November 29th, 2007
  • Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans. November 28th, 2007
  • Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs November 26th, 2007 (2)
  • Could a political campaign use prediction markets? November 26th, 2007
  • Polls over prediction markets? November 19th, 2007
  • Small comforts of prediction markets November 19th, 2007 (3)
  • James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom Of Crowds… still stands. November 18th, 2007
  • Prediction Market Software November 16th, 2007
  • Prediction Markets = Clear Expiry + Disperse Information + Participation Incentives November 14th, 2007 (1)
  • How to sell art short November 8th, 2007 (1)
  • If Musharraf goes, should we celebrate? November 8th, 2007 (1)
  • A virtual tour of InTrade, the leading prediction exchange for North America November 5th, 2007
  • Enterprise Prediction Markets according to Consensus Point and two of its Fortune-500 clients, General Electric and Best Buy. November 5th, 2007
  • Explainer on Binary Betting with a Bookmaker November 4th, 2007
  • Prediction markets help cut through the clutter inherent in any large organization by revealing what people really think… November 4th, 2007
  • Prediction markets work by soliciting input across a diverse group of traders inside and/or outside the organization. November 3rd, 2007
  • Three Structures of Enterprise Prediction Markets November 2nd, 2007
  • Two models of forecasting November 2nd, 2007 (2)
  • Overview of Henry Manne’s, "Insider Trading: Hayek, Virtual Markets, and the Dog that Did Not Bark" October 31st, 2007
  • Prediction markets or insider trading could reveal information hidden from upper management October 29th, 2007
  • LMSR trading vs. CDA trading October 26th, 2007 (2)
  • Aren’t most firms using binaries for their internal prediction markets? October 26th, 2007 (1)
  • YooNew, fears and hopes October 23rd, 2007
  • Prediction Market Industry Association October 22nd, 2007 (1)
  • Beware before citing the probabilistic predictions given by the prediction markets October 18th, 2007 (3)
  • Demand forecasting systems: Spending a lot on software doesn’t guarantee success. October 18th, 2007
  • John Delaney of inTrade-TradeSports: The North Korea Missile prediction market was a P.R. disaster. October 18th, 2007 (1)
  • Prediction markets don’t solve the crystal-ball problem when it comes to the long-term future. October 16th, 2007 (1)
  • Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery October 15th, 2007
  • The InTrade-TradeSports explainer October 11th, 2007
  • Prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations October 3rd, 2007 (1)
  • Encouraging participation in long-term information markets September 30th, 2007 (4)
  • Where is it that the prediction markets can make a macro difference, mister Robin Hanson? September 26th, 2007 (4)
  • Enthusiasm and Arbitrage Opportunities at Media Predict September 19th, 2007 (4)
  • Pennock & Sami on "Computational aspects of prediction markets" September 19th, 2007 (2)
  • A new prediction markets explainer video September 19th, 2007
  • Here’s how businesses should use prediction markets to see what their futures may hold. September 18th, 2007
  • How does Koleman Strumpf define the prediction markets? September 17th, 2007
  • Here’s how Bet2Give explains what a prediction market is to its prospects. September 17th, 2007 (2)
  • Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson September 16th, 2007 (2)
  • Risk that can be measured Vs. Uncertainty that cannot be measured September 15th, 2007
  • Manipulators Increase Prediction Market Accuracy September 14th, 2007
  • Market Scoring Rules, best mechanism design ever?? September 14th, 2007
  • The Robin Hanson explainer on decision markets for governments September 14th, 2007
  • The Robin Hanson explainer on his Market Scoring Rule September 13th, 2007
  • The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets September 12th, 2007
  • Create your own prediction market at Inkling Markets in just 5 steps. September 12th, 2007
  • Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets September 10th, 2007 (21)
  • Prediction markets that try to forecast the QUALITY of upcoming products. September 8th, 2007
  • The Meaning of Probability, Class Probability, Case Probability, Betting, and Gambling September 6th, 2007 (1)
  • Jed Christiansen’s video explainer on prediction markets September 6th, 2007
  • Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool. September 1st, 2007 (1)
  • Cooperation between BetFair and the British Horseracing Authority: IT IS WORKING. August 30th, 2007 (3)
  • Does betting exchange BetFair handle more daily trades than the New York Stock Exchange? August 23rd, 2007 (1)
  • Widespread Corruption in Sports Gambling: Fact or Fiction? August 20th, 2007 (2)
  • Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports August 19th, 2007
  • The NFL’s Home Underdog Bias: Timing and Weather August 17th, 2007 (1)
  • Robin Hanson’s concept of decision markets applied to Midas Oracle management August 14th, 2007
  • Decision markets that give the consequences of something August 14th, 2007
  • The NewsFutures expiry judgment statements should not be elliptic. August 9th, 2007
  • The Most Active Inkling Market Ever? August 4th, 2007 (1)
  • Were the InTrade prediction markets on the November 2006’s Senate elections accurate? August 2nd, 2007
  • Point Shaving in the NBA: An Economic Analysis of the NBA’s Point Spread Betting Market July 27th, 2007 (2)
  • Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World July 17th, 2007
  • HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline July 17th, 2007 (16)
  • INTRADE-TRADESPORTS: John Delaney LIED in his Freakonomics interview. July 15th, 2007
  • J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die! July 12th, 2007 (1)
  • What should be Done about Manipulation of Prediction Markets? July 10th, 2007 (8)
  • Overview of Robin Hanson’s Paper, "Insider Trading and Prediction Markets" July 9th, 2007 (3)
  • Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. July 9th, 2007 (3)
  • Deep-Pocketed Manipulators are a Prediction Market’s Friend. July 8th, 2007 (10)
  • EPS Prediction Markets = Earnings Per Share Prediction Markets — Google July 2nd, 2007 (5)
  • Structure and Behavior of Commodities Markets July 1st, 2007
  • The Second Workshop on Prediction Markets June 30th, 2007
  • Paper on Corporate Prediction Markets June 27th, 2007
  • The idea here is that prices aggregate information, the oldest idea in economics. June 26th, 2007
  • Pop Sci PredictionS Exchange June 11th, 2007
  • Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It. June 9th, 2007
  • An Employee Stock Option Prediction Market June 1st, 2007 (2)
  • Robin Hanson to Justin Wolfers on making a bet with a fellow economist regarding a prediction market June 1st, 2007
  • What is the biggest uncovered risk category, and how would you hedge it? May 31st, 2007
  • Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) May 31st, 2007 (2)