Midas Oracle .ORG

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform – NYT – by a former CBO director. Required reading for Paul Hewitt. - - ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate. Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + Probabilistic Predictions + Post-Mortem Predictions [...]

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The Tragedy Of Alex Tabarrok

Debunking his Marginal Revolution post on Zimbabwe. UPDATE: Alex Tabarrok has taken into account the piece above. Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + Probabilistic Predictions + Post-Mortem Predictions + Prediction Exchanges + Prediction Software + Publish Your Post + How To Publish

“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Ron Paul - - ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate. Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + Probabilistic Predictions + Post-Mortem Predictions + Prediction Exchanges + Prediction Software + Publish Your Post + How To Publish

Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?

One (anonymous) InTrade trader: I am utterly convinced Intrade participates in its own markets. Every few hours some kind of API hits the bids on the GOP 2012 nomination contract when the bids sum to more 100. It will even short bids at 0.1, which is a money losing proposition when you figure the transaction [...]

What was Max Keiser doing at InTrade HQ two years ago? –> “due diligence”…!??…

Max Keiser: [...] I asked John Delaney and his tech team when I was doing my due diligence on InTrade a couple of years ago in Dublin – about the firm’s own participation in making markets – and the potential to ‘manage’ prices in ways that were outside of the normal price discovery mechanism. I came [...]

2010 Economics Bloggers Forum

The Kauffman Foundation is organizing a meeting of economics bloggers. I was not able to join them, this time. I will be watching the webcast, today. 2010 Economics Bloggers Forum Hosted by the Kauffman Foundation 8:30 a.m. Welcome by Tim Kane 8:45 a.m. [...]

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Nate Silver: I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had [...]

When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.

ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate. Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + Probabilistic Predictions + Post-Mortem Predictions + Prediction Exchanges + Prediction Software + Publish Your Post + How To Publish

Selling Us Short: The Limits of Markets (and Governments) – Joe Stiglitz and Jim Chanos – [VIDEO]

More Via Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + Probabilistic Predictions + Post-Mortem Predictions + Prediction Exchanges + Prediction Software + Publish Your Post + How To Publish

MAX KEISER FOR PRESIDENT… of Greece

Midas Oracle started the thing, but now one Greek blogger is carrying the project officially. A petition is forming on the Internet to draft Max Keiser into Greek politics. 23,000 views, so far —and it’s just a start. Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + [...]