Comments for Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Comment on Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT] by Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2012/02/02/jason-ruspini-rebuts-eric-zitzewitz-on-the-regulation-of-political-prediction-markets-video/#comment-27852 Jason Ruspini Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=28041#comment-27852 This wasn't a rebuttal, and I'm glad that someone is still arguing for prediction markets. The tricky part here was that Dodd-Frank (July 2010) did not directly prohibit such contracts but said that the CFTC may determine that such contracts (that involve activity that is unlawful under any State law) are contrary to the public interest. That didn't really sound like anything new, but in late July 2011, the CFTC released regulations to comply with Dodd-Frank, and those included an outright prohibition for such contracts. That was odd since the broad interpretation of the regulation, possibly unintended, appears to contradict the earlier approval of event contracts, including those of the Cantor Exchange (at which time Dodd-Frank had basically taken shape). Moreover, part of the historical background and purpose of the Commodity Exchange Act was to supersede State gambling laws where legitimate hedging was involved. Hopefully either my broad interpretation is wrong, or the regulation will be revised in a way that is still in-line with Dodd-Frank, but the chances of these specific contracts being approved seems very slim. This wasn’t a rebuttal, and I’m glad that someone is still arguing for prediction markets. The tricky part here was that Dodd-Frank (July 2010) did not directly prohibit such contracts but said that the CFTC may determine that such contracts (that involve activity that is unlawful under any State law) are contrary to the public interest. That didn’t really sound like anything new, but in late July 2011, the CFTC released regulations to comply with Dodd-Frank, and those included an outright prohibition for such contracts. That was odd since the broad interpretation of the regulation, possibly unintended, appears to contradict the earlier approval of event contracts, including those of the Cantor Exchange (at which time Dodd-Frank had basically taken shape). Moreover, part of the historical background and purpose of the Commodity Exchange Act was to supersede State gambling laws where legitimate hedging was involved. Hopefully either my broad interpretation is wrong, or the regulation will be revised in a way that is still in-line with Dodd-Frank, but the chances of these specific contracts being approved seems very slim.

]]> Comment on Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK] by Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2012/02/02/global-warming-is-a-big-scam-link/#comment-27851 Chris F. Masse Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:12:55 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=28031#comment-27851 I have the highest respect for some of the scientists who signed this Op-Ed. I have the highest respect for some of the scientists who signed this Op-Ed.

]]> Comment on Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK] by Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2012/02/02/global-warming-is-a-big-scam-link/#comment-27850 Paul Hewitt Thu, 02 Feb 2012 16:13:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=28031#comment-27850 I think the WSJ lost whatever respect and integrity it had left, when it ran this story. I don't think we need to encourage them by reposting BS. I think the WSJ lost whatever respect and integrity it had left, when it ran this story. I don’t think we need to encourage them by reposting BS.

]]> Comment on InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT] by David Pennock http://www.midasoracle.org/2012/01/04/intrade-is-not-predictive-says-notable-financial-journalist-screenshot/#comment-27849 David Pennock Wed, 18 Jan 2012 22:26:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=27898#comment-27849 @hblodget @cdixon #fail While the amount of improvement of prediction markets over other methods may be hyped, the fact remains that prediction markets still give better predictions than any other method we know: http://messymatters.com/prediction-without-markets/ @hblodget @cdixon #fail

While the amount of improvement of prediction markets over other methods may be hyped, the fact remains that prediction markets still give better predictions than any other method we know:
http://messymatters.com/prediction-without-markets/

]]> Comment on The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK] by Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2012/01/09/the-real-reasons-why-prediction-markets-are-accurate-link/#comment-27848 Paul Hewitt Tue, 10 Jan 2012 19:11:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=27914#comment-27848 I thought this was a key quote: "It is impossible to quantify the accuracy rate of prediction markets in general..." Over time, it may be possible to determine the accuracy of a group of similar prediction markets (based on their calibration), but he is definitely correct to say that it is impossible to determine the accuracy of prediction markets in general. Should be interesting to see what he writes, given that most prediction market researchers have disappeared. I thought this was a key quote:

“It is impossible to quantify the accuracy rate of prediction markets in general…”

Over time, it may be possible to determine the accuracy of a group of similar prediction markets (based on their calibration), but he is definitely correct to say that it is impossible to determine the accuracy of prediction markets in general.

Should be interesting to see what he writes, given that most prediction market researchers have disappeared.

]]> Comment on New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS] by Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2012/01/10/new-hampshire-prediction-markets-screwed-up-political-forecasting-in-2008-will-they-be-right-this-time-charts/#comment-27847 Paul Hewitt Tue, 10 Jan 2012 19:06:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=27918#comment-27847 Oh Chris, have I taught you nothing? So far as we know (even though we don't), those markets were perfectly accurate. Of course, it meant that Hillary is not likely to win again in the next 249 or so primaries (though she might, still). I'm surprised I got in ahead of Panos in making this comment. Oh Chris, have I taught you nothing? So far as we know (even though we don’t), those markets were perfectly accurate. Of course, it meant that Hillary is not likely to win again in the next 249 or so primaries (though she might, still).

I’m surprised I got in ahead of Panos in making this comment.

]]> Comment on Legality of real-money prediction markets in America — [LINKS] by Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/12/27/legality-of-real-money-prediction-markets-in-america-links/#comment-27846 Jason Ruspini Tue, 27 Dec 2011 23:42:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=27867#comment-27846 Chilton's stance is not new as he voted against approval of Cantor Exchange. One aspect of this that is relatively new is the MF Global debacle, which places the Commission under greater scrutiny and probably makes the other commissioners less likely to allow such contracts. Intrade continues to exist in a gray zone, as the Commission has signaled jurisdiction via the Cantor decision, but takes no action. With this ambiguity, it is not worth the risk of maintaining an account there. Obama for re-election at 52% seems too low by the way. Chilton’s stance is not new as he voted against approval of Cantor Exchange. One aspect of this that is relatively new is the MF Global debacle, which places the Commission under greater scrutiny and probably makes the other commissioners less likely to allow such contracts.

Intrade continues to exist in a gray zone, as the Commission has signaled jurisdiction via the Cantor decision, but takes no action. With this ambiguity, it is not worth the risk of maintaining an account there.

Obama for re-election at 52% seems too low by the way.

]]> Comment on 1 MW E-Cat cold fusion plant — [VIDEO] by Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/10/29/1-mw-e-cat-cold-fusion-plant-video/#comment-27845 Chris F. Masse Fri, 11 Nov 2011 22:31:20 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=27367#comment-27845 David, There are pros and cons. I am aware of the criticism. I am waiting for the AP story to come out. I will base my judgment on the AP story. Later, Chris David,
There are pros and cons. I am aware of the criticism.
I am waiting for the AP story to come out. I will base my judgment on the AP story.
Later,
Chris

]]> Comment on Once again, Yahoo!’s David Rothschild forgets to cite InTrade and BetFair as probability sources. — [OOPS] by Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/11/10/david-rothschild-intrade-betfair/#comment-27844 Chris F. Masse Fri, 11 Nov 2011 22:21:57 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=27413#comment-27844 OK, thanks. OK, thanks.

]]> Comment on 1 MW E-Cat cold fusion plant — [VIDEO] by David Pennock http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/10/29/1-mw-e-cat-cold-fusion-plant-video/#comment-27843 David Pennock Fri, 11 Nov 2011 22:05:03 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=27367#comment-27843 Read Zanzibar McFate's comment on 10/20/11 07:29 here: http://www.nationalreview.com/agenda/280490/mark-gibbs-e-cat-reihan-salam Read Zanzibar McFate’s comment on 10/20/11 07:29 here:

http://www.nationalreview.com/agenda/280490/mark-gibbs-e-cat-reihan-salam

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