Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: X Universes

It’s Only A Game.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 13, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Mihai Nadin (University of Texas, Dallas):
It’s Only A Game
Prediction markets of all kinds pop up all over the world. As betting animals, we human beings get a kick out of knowing better. The illusion of having known things before others did is even more seductive. Yes, in retrospect, we are all right. But contracts that [...]

Also posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , ,

BetFair Games needs a Swedish provider to develop its gambling offerings.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 21, 2008 — Leave a Comment

P.R. stuff.
No word on whether this will concern the X Universes. [I'm short of time, today. I will have more thoughts on the X Universes in the coming months.]

Also posted in Betting, Gambling | Tagged , , ,

Transforming Betting Into Gambling + Virtual Horse Racing

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 28, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Niall O’Connor republishes the speech of a British Lord on FOBTs (the betting machines that you now find in the 10,000 British betting shops) and virtual horse races (which bookmakers propose betting on). I will leave it to you to read the full text, if you are interested. The thoughts below pertain to the prediction [...]

Also posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Gambling, Regulations | Tagged ,

Robin Hanson’s decision markets —thru Tyler Cowen’s eyes

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 30, 2007 — Leave a Comment

EXCERPTS – Discover Your Inner Economist: Use Incentives to Fall in Love, Survive Your Next Meeting, and Motivate Your Dentist.
Robin believes that betting markets should be used to rule many human affairs, including government policy. We should bet [*] on which policies will maximize national income, and governments should institute the policies what the betting [...]

Also posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting | Tagged , , , , ,

Incite the free-market thinkers into *practicing* prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 12, 2007 — 4 Comments

Which objective(s) should have the highest priority? 23 Responses
- Generate revenues and profits for Midas Oracle. 4 / 23
- Make Jason Ruspini quit whining about the fact that he blogs on Midas Oracle for free. 1 / 23
- Incite the free-market thinkers into *practicing* [...]

Also posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Inventions & Innovations, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Reality-based prediction markets & Imagination-based prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 26, 2007 — 1 Comment

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This NewsFutures header gives me the opportunity to renew my bold prediction: Will come a day, in the future, when imagination-based prediction markets will bring in more revenues than sports prediction markets.
Mark my word. And bookmark this blog post. Reality check in the next decade, or the following.

Also posted in Analysis (Industry), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged

The LindeX Currency Exchange

Written by Jason Ruspini on January 17, 2007 — 1 Comment

In the wake of the Neteller arrests this week, alternate currencies are unfortunately a bit less interesting. While the DOJ has not yet moved against gambling in virtual worlds such as Second Life, it is only a matter of time now. When the UIGEA was passed, a person identifying himself as Linden Lab’s [...]

Also posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged , ,

Prediction exchange grid??

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 8, 2007 — 5 Comments

Last month, I asked: Does open source make sense for prediction market software?
Today, I learn that Second Life goes GPL. The leftist Boing Boing guy writes: “This is HUGE.” —and lists like 100 related links (ouch!). Indeed, man. Here’s from the Secong Life blog:
A lot of the Second Life development work currently in progress is [...]

Also posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Software | Tagged , , , ,

Prediction markets-friend Barney Pell is involved in the next Google, “PowerSet”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 6, 2006 — 6 Comments

PowerSet will blow away Google, the buzz goes, because this brand-new search engine has mastered the natural language search. Here’s Barney Pell’s account of the blogosphere’s comments on the unveiling of PowerSet’s business plan.
My Question: Do you see any kind of connection between natural language search and prediction markets?
Addendum (November 7): In a 2005 blog [...]

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