Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Psychology

A Note on the Impotence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

No one who makes a living trading really cares about EMH, but I’m not sure why failure to predict under EMH is that surprising. Markets do more discounting than predicting. That’s part of the reason why stocks are volatile — the last data point tends to be extrapolated into perpetuity. It is [...]

Counterfactual Thinking – [VIDEO]

Adam Lambert makes sense to me. He is a smart man.

Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog? — REDUX

Tyler Cowen praised Robin Hanson.
Robin Hanson responds that we should praise “results instead of characters”:
the world would be better if we praised folks more for what they did than who they are.
Excellent.
So, how would you answer the question in the blog title?

Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog?

Read Tyler Cowen’s description of Robin Hanson, and then answer these 2 questions:
- Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog?
- Is Tyler Cowen a fox or a hedgehog?
Comment below, or e-mail me if you want your toughts to stay private.
I am 100% certain that Tyler Cowen is a fox. However, I cannot make up [...]

The World Of SuperFreakonomics

Steve Levitt on Super Freakonomics:

Super Freakonomics: Steve Levitt and Steve Dubner on Charlie Rose
- Click on Archives.
- Spot November 11’s show.

How to use emotions in business

About the richest 1% of Americans who own roughly half of the entire nation’s wealth

Born Rich – by Jamie Johnson

The One Percent – by Jamie Johnson

Richard Feynman: Disrespect for Authority

ABC Nightline goes deep into Scientology.

ABC Nightline goes deep into Scientology.

Search

Post Categories