Question asked on May 5, 2011 (United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum): At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead? Here’s BetFair’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged AV Referendum, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, GB, Great Britain, Politics, prediction markets, Predictions, referendum, UK, UK politics, United Kingdom, United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum 2011 | Leave a comment

Idiots believe in earthquake prediction markets. — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on March 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

That’s how you spot them: They would believe in anything. [*] There can’t be any usefulness in earthquake prediction markets since science does not give us any leading indicators. (Assessing the risk of a nuclear plant melting is another issue.) … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, earthquake, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, Japan, prediction markets, Predictions, quakes | Leave a comment

iOS devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch) will never allow scripts. — [PREDICTION]

Posted on March 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Brian Chen is so wrong. If you allow scripts, you enable spammers and scammers. Steve Jobs does not want that on his post-PC devices. He is so right. Keep in mind that the next generation of smartphones will have RFID-NFC … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged Apple, Apple iOS, Apple IPad, Apple iPhone, Apple iPod Touch, Information Technology, innovation, innovations, inventions, iOS, iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch, operating systems, post-PC devices, Steve Jobs | Leave a comment

Arab Revolt Prediction Markets – {Predictions for next Arab country to revolt} – {Which country is the next ‘domino’?} – {What will happen in the Middle East & Northern Africa?} – [PREDICTION MARKET CHARTS]

Posted on February 22, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Predictions for next Arab country to revolt: Libya — Muammar al-Gaddafi – [5 spellings: Gaddafi, Qaddafi, Gadhafi, Khadafy and Khadafi]: Bahrain — Khalifah ibn Sulman al-Khalifah: Yemen — Ali Abdullah Saleh: Iran — Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Iran — Seyed Ali Hoseyni … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged Ali Abdullah Saleh, Arab countries, Arabs, Bahrain, bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, Gaddafi, Gadhafi, InTrade, Iran, Khadafi, Khadafy, Khalifah ibn Sulman al-Khalifah, Libya, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Muammar al-Gaddafi, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Qaddafi, Seyed Ali Hoseyni KhÄmeneâ€™i, traders, trading, world politcs, Yemen | Leave a comment

BOOKMAKER ODDS: Next country to topple leader. – [FORECASTS]

Posted on February 16, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paddy Power: 15/8 Yemen 9/4 Jordan 7/2 Algeria 7/2 Morocco 8/1 Bahrain 12/1 Iran 16/1 Libya 16/1 Sudan 16/1 Iraq 20/1 Saudi Arabia 20/1 Syria

Posted in Betting, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged bookmakers, democracies, democracy, dictators, forecasting, forecasts, odds, Paddy Power, People, predicting, Predictions, probabilities | Leave a comment

InTrade traders are predicting that Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on February 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade CEO John Delaney on CNBC (January 25, 2011). [Download this post to watch the embedded video, if your feed reader does not show it to you.] Barack Obama re-election prediction market:

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged 2012 political elections, Barack Obama, bets, Betting, betting markets, Democratic party, elections, event derivative markets, event derivatives, political elections, Politics, prediction markets, US politics | Leave a comment

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