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Recent Posts
- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Category Archives: Prediction Post-Mortem
Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]
InTrade’s prediction markets on the recent Arab revolutions didn’t bring anything interesting in our understanding of the Middle East. Robin Hanson’s insistence is absurd.
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged Algeria, Arab countries, Arabs, Bahrain, bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, Egypt, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, InTrade, Libya, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Robin Hanson, traders, trading, Tunisia, world politcs, Yemen
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FORECASTING THE ECONOMY: Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics — [VIDEO]
The 2 videos are designed to convince you that the Austrians’ economic predictions are more accurate. The first video has an intro in French, sorry for that, but the rest of the video is in English (with French subtitles). Keynesians’ … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Finance, Financial Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem, The Global Economy
Tagged Ben Bernanke, credit, crisis, economic crisis, economic recession, Economics, economy, financial crisis, forecasts, global economy, Money, money creation, Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, post-mortem predictions, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, real estate market, reality check, Ron Paul, stock market, stock markets, US economy, US stock market, wealth
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An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media — [PAPER]
An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media – PDF file.
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Journalism, Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged columnists, columns, elites, forecasting, forecasts, Journalism, journalists, magazines, Media, news media, newspapers, opinion, opinion makers, politicians, Politics, predicting, Predictions, pundits, US politics
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Why you should never trust John Battelle’s opinion on tech — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
- John Battelle pumped up “Color” at inception, and now we have confirmation that it is a lemon. – John Battelle badmouthed the iPad at inception, and now we know that it is revolutionizing computing.
U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]
Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, & Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute’s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, FantasySCOTUS, forecasts, law, prediction markets, Predictions, SCOTUS, Supreme Court, Tom W. Bell, U.S. Supreme Court
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InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
Contra to Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki (who all have exaggerated the usefulness of the prediction markets), collective forecasting is not a tool we can rely on for just anything. As I wrote in the past, we need … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, electricity, energy, event derivative markets, Fukushima, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Japan, Justin Wolfers, nuclear electricity, nuclear energy, nuclear energy plant, nuclear energy plants, nuclear power, power plant, power plants, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, traders
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The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
Ishibashi Katsuhiko: I had warned that a major earthquake would strike the Chuetsu region around Kashiwazaki, Niigata Prefecture, and about the fundamental vulnerability of nuclear power plants. The 6.8 magnitude temblor of July 16 caused considerable damage to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa … Continue reading