Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Prediction Post-Mortem

OSCARS 2010: Did Justin Wolfers brag too much and too loudly? — [RELATIVE ACCURACY DEPARTMENT]

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 10, 2010 — Leave a Comment

Jason (a Freakonomics reader):
You are giving yourself WAY too much credit. Siskel and Ebert successfully predict these awards 100% year after year. This isn’t a difficult thing to predict. Predicting something like the NCAA tourney, that would be an accomplishment, but if you look at rankings and your prediction market, you will fail just as [...]

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Oscars 2010 Post-Mortem — InTrade Prediction Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 8, 2010 — 1 Comment

Professor Mark Perry is wrong to yell victory. Evaluating probabilistic predictions is tougher than one thinks.

Source: InTrade

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How the prediction market industry lied to the media (and the public, *YOU*) about Hewlett-Packard’s pilot tests regarding enterprise prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 4, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Paul Hewitt on the Hewlett-Packard (HP) prediction markets:
Another tried-and-true method is to repeat a statement over-and-over until it becomes a “fact”. The best example of this, regarding prediction markets, is the claim that they are “proven” by virtue of HP’s remarkably lop-sided, unmistakable, trouncing of internal forecasts by a score of 6 – 2. It [...]

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Andrew McAfee’s anecdote on enterprise prediction markets is a load of bullsh*t.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 2, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Paul Hewitt:
I’m curious why Andrew McAfee would cite this example in support of prediction markets. Though he mentions that his executive students had conducted a “simple poll”, in fact, they really created a pari-mutuel market, which provided the “risk and gain”. It was not a prediction market, as the executives believed it was. There was [...]

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Accuracy of millenium predictions

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 2, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Millennium Predictions That Got Things Right – and Those That Didn’t.

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2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silver’s prediction more accurate than InTrade’s?

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 4, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Nate Silver’s prediction (November 2, 2009): “I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
[ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]
You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:

Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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