Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Category Archives: Philanthropy

When you ask for money, you get advice. And when you ask for advice, you might get money.

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Making the Web works for science as it does for culture and commerce

Creative Commons’ Science Project
Open Innovation

It is something I will investigate more in conjunction with my project about The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets.
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Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?

An Irish research team hopes to make accurate forecasts of key public health indicators.
University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade
Dr Dylan Evans:
Prediction markets are [specialized], small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than [...]

Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets

Should Google subsidize the Lunar X Prize contract on InTrade?
John Salvatier,
Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google’s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for him to “subsidize” external prediction markets.
[As an appendix, I precise that I am in favor of opening [...]

Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets

I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only [...]

Why Emile Servan-Schreiber is on to something with Bet 2 Give —and why InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair should each have a philanthropy wallet.

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Bet 2 Give
BetFair Wallets
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??? charity-driven prediction markets OR social issue prediction markets ???

BOTH.
But, contrary to what Lucy Berholtz thinks, the former will go further than the latter —in my view.
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My thoughts about the Financial Times article on Bet2Give:

I have said from day one that it’s a great idea.
This is a “unique” concept… until InTrade-TradeSports, Betdaq and BetFair-TradeSports decide to create a charity wallet for their traders. Complex, [...]

The Bet2Give real-money betting exchange could facilitate the sponsoring of socially valuable prediction markets by foundations and think tanks.

Could Emile Servan-Schreiber push his Bet2Give concept a bit further?
I’m thinking of something, having in mind the LongBets experiment. Bet2Give lets traders select the charity of their choice. Good. But can’t we go further than that? Why not letting some people (like Robin Hanson and his gullible fanboys like Chris Hibbert ) create [...]

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