A FRIEND OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE WHITE HOUSE – Part 2

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Previously: Part One

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Wall Street Journal:

Although obscure, the post wields outsize power. It oversees regulations throughout the government, from the Environmental Protection Agency to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Obama aides have said the job will be crucial as the new administration overhauls financial-services regulations, attempts to pass universal health care and tries to forge a new approach to controlling emissions of greenhouse gases.

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NEXT: Part Three

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A FRIEND OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE WHITE HOUSE

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Under the Barack Obama administration, Cass Sunstein will head the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, within the Office of Management and Budget, which is part of the Executive Office of the President of the United States.

Here&#8217-s Cass Sunstein&#8217-s track record on prediction markets:

- Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge (Oxford University Press 2006)&#8230- which featured prediction markets and collective intelligence. – (podcast)

- Deliberating groups versus prediction markets – (paper)

- A blog post defending the prediction markets after the New Hampshire upset.

- Cass Sunstein so-signed the 2008 petition on prediction markets.

UPDATE:

- Chicago Tribune

- WashPost

- Wall Street Journal

Although obscure, the post wields outsize power. It oversees regulations throughout the government, from the Environmental Protection Agency to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Obama aides have said the job will be crucial as the new administration overhauls financial-services regulations, attempts to pass universal health care and tries to forge a new approach to controlling emissions of greenhouse gases.

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UPDATE: PodCast on behaviorial economics

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UPDATE: Cass Sunstein and Bo Cowgill – PDF file

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NEXT: Part Three

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What Dean LeBaron should do to have a more usable website. + Who is Dean LeBaron and why does Midas Oracle get to publish about him?

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- He should adopt WordPress as his web publishing platform-

- He should use YouTube to web-host his talk videos.

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PS: Question to the Midas Oracle readers about Dean LeBaron. Something important has been left out (intentionally) of Dean LeBaron&#8217-s bio. Can you sense what it is? Something that has to do with what we are blogging about on Midas Oracle, day in, day out. Guess what it is. I won&#8217-t talk about it &#8212-don&#8217-t ask. Just a private mind puzzle for your amusement, after you&#8217-ve come back from the beach with the children.

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Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MITs Center for Collective Intelligence.

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Photo Credit: Neely Steinberg

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Tom Malone

MIT&#8217-s Center for Collective Intelligence

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PS: The guy on the computer is Jason Carver.

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CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.

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Erik Snowberg @ CalTech

Erik Snowberg @ LinkedIn

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
  • INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
  • Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
  • The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.

Bo Cowgills boss = Hal Varian

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UPDATE: Bo tells us: &#8220-Actually, that’s my desk right behind him, in the top picture.&#8221-

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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06

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Blip.TV

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson.
  • Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.
  • Do the media avoid reporting the bad omens that is sometimes reflected in the prediction markets?
  • BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic
  • Quizz Of The Day — Monday Morning Edition
  • BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us —they are blogging to promote themselves.
  • Did Jason Ruspini and friends cash in on huge moves in prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other parts of the energy patch, this semester?

Meet Tom W. Bell, the man who knows the legal difference between excluded commodities and exempt commodities, and the legal difference between contracts and notes -but still cant get himself a gravatar.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.
  • Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.
  • Got that hardcover book on my desk, thanks to Steve Roman. It’s out in paperback form, today —for small people like you (the readers), who are not famous on the Web, and hence don’t get all the free gigs that big bloggers get for free. (((I pity you.)))
  • Do not pay any attention to Jason Ruspini’s legal ramblings on Midas Oracle. — Do monitor Jason Ruspini’s portfolio of event derivatives, instead.
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”
  • Will the CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money prediction markets?
  • Who will be the next US Vice President, past January 2009?