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The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 10:02:50 +0000

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform – NYT – by a former CBO director.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

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“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:22:55 +0000

Ron Paul

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:17:19 +0000

Nate Silver:

I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had them work 24/7 on trying to beat the Intrade contract, I’m not sure if they could come up with anything sufficiently rigorous to provide them with a real advantage. (That doesn’t necessarily mean the market is “efficient”, but we’ll save that conversation for another day.) But for what it’s worth, the Intrade contract, which is trading at 75 percent right now, now looks about right to me or perhaps even a hair pessimistic.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:35:20 +0000

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:16:02 +0000

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.

Makes no sense at all.

The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.

DISAMBIGUATION: The “illiquid” adjective refers to the UK political markets on InTrade —not the US political prediction markets.

“InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:51:56 +0000

Dixit Jason Ruspini.

OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:22:18 +0000

IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.

See Jason Ruspini’s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.

Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 17:17:39 +0000

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”…

9:57 into:

Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 16:05:54 +0000

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.

Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’s memories?
Do you sense that the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade fits these 2 criteria?

UPDATE: I asked The Brain whether he meant generalist media or political media, and he meant “generalist”. That makes all the difference in the world.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps. –> September 24, 2010

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 11:14:26 +0000

Full of clichés?

Wall Street 2 @ HSX –> Quite high flying.

The first trailer is hilarious:

About Wall Street 2:

Wall Street 1:

Frank Sinatra, “Fly Me To The Moon”: