Midas Oracle .ORG » Market Prices & Probabilities

Drudge links directly to InTrade prediction markets, bypassing journalos. — [SCREENSHOT]

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 15:34:56 +0000

New Zealand’s election gag law suspends iPredict’s political prediction markets. — [LINKS]

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 10:40:37 +0000

- Election gags and efficient markets.

- Election gag.

Prediction market manipulation — [LINK]

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 10:27:39 +0000

@ iPredict (New Zealand).

Once again, Yahoo!’s David Rothschild forgets to cite InTrade and BetFair as probability sources. — [OOPS]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 19:04:48 +0000

Here.

Previously.

Yahoo’s David Rothschild scraps market info from InTrade (and BetFair?), does not cite them, and does not link to them. — [UPDATED]

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:22:51 +0000

David Pennock’s little protégé should receive a crash course about citing sources.

~~C’est minable~~.

UPDATE: David Rothschild e-mails me to say he forgot to link to InTrade and BetFair in that story, at publication time, but he added the links later on. Also, he did link to InTrade and BetFair in the past. Kudos to David.

Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 17:04:29 +0000

More.

“A financial adviser or stock broker should be licensed to provide any consultation on investment in securities.”

Ex-HSX Max Keiser claims that InTrade’s Ron Paul prediction market is manipulated. — [VIDEO]

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 16:36:48 +0000

Post-Delaney InTrade experiences turmoil related to the debt ceiling prediction market. — [CHART + LINK]

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 20:13:36 +0000

37 pages (!!) on the InTrade message board.

Once again, one can question the professionalism of the InTrade execs and the usefulness of the prediction markets.

InTrade prediction markets on US debt ceiling — [CHARTS]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 12:53:01 +0000

Why does InTrade offer gold contracts to US customers when they signed a 2005 agreement with the CFTC not to offer commodity options to US customers? — [DOCUMENT]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 08:48:59 +0000

InTrade does it. (Hat tip to a MO reader.)

InTrade wasn’t authorized to trade yearly contracts. Do you, guys, have an explanation on why InTrade does it anyway?

Release: 5124-05
For Release: October 4, 2005

U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ASSESSES PENALTIES AGAINST IRISH COMPANY TRADE EXCHANGE NETWORK LIMITED FOR OFFERING ILLEGAL COMMODITY OPTION CONTRACTS

Trade Exchange Network Cooperates with Federal Investigation and Agrees to Pay Civil Penalty of $150,000

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today announced the filing and simultaneous settlement of charges under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) that Trade Exchange Network Limited (TEN), a limited liability company based in Dublin, Ireland, solicited and accepted orders from U.S. residents for commodity option contracts that were not excepted or exempted from the Commission’s ban on options. TEN owns and operates an Internet-based trading platform that facilitates trading through its websites www.Tradesports.com, www.Intrade.com, and www.TradebetX.com.

The CFTC consent order finds that between January 2003 and May 2005, TEN, through its websites, offered the following commodity option contracts, among others, to U.S. residents: Gold Futures Year End; Daily Crude Oil; Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Year End; Intraday Euro versus U.S. Dollar Rate; and U.S. Dollar versus Yen Cash Rate.

According to the findings in the order, TEN actively solicited U.S. residents to trade such contracts by retaining an individual in the U.S. to market TEN’s products throughout the country, and TEN ultimately developed a U.S. customer base that was roughly 33 to 40% of its total customer base. The order further finds that the commodity option contracts offered on TEN’s websites were not excepted or exempted from the Commission’s regulation banning options trading, and therefore violated the CEA.

TEN’s high level of cooperation during the underlying investigation resulted in a reduction of the civil monetary penalty to $150,000, which TEN agreed to pay. The order also calls for TEN to cease and desist from further violations of the CEA and comply with specific undertakings. In consenting to the entry of the CFTC’s order, TEN neither admitted nor denied the findings made in the order.

The following Division of Enforcement staff members were responsible for this case: Anne M. Termine, William Hoar, Kathleen Banar, Richard Glaser, and Richard Wagner.