Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Market Makers (Human)

Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?

One (anonymous) InTrade trader:
I am utterly convinced Intrade participates in its own markets. Every few hours some kind of API hits the bids on the GOP 2012 nomination contract when the bids sum to more 100. It will even short bids at 0.1, which is a money losing proposition when you figure the transaction [...]

BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 – [This link is only available to the BetFair registered users, alas. In the future, BetFair should make the transcripts of all chat sessions available to the public at large, in my view.]

Here is a transcript, transmitted to me by Mike Robb of BetFair —many [...]

CDA, MSR, the automated market makers, and the human market makers

Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart.

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UPDATE:
Nigel Eccles:
There was a bug in that chart which is now fixed. However the excess volatility is still there. The problem is that our early markets were created with a liquidity parameter which was too low. That is fixed with more recent markets. However we are also looking at modifying the MSR in some significant [...]

BetFair’s new bet-matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples

BetFair:

Bet Matching Forum Q&A Session 19/03/08
Betfair Customer Services 17 Mar 11:50
As announced last week we’ll be hosting a Q&A session on the forum this Wednesday evening (19th March) between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time). The purpose of this Q&A session is to answer questions regarding BetFair’s new bet matching logic. To [...]

BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples

Tony Clare of BetFair (The Sporting Exchange) to me:

Dear Mr. Masse,
Thank you for the questions you submitted to tonight’s Q&A session. The session is intended specifically to address questions from Betfair customers. We therefore don’t feel it would be appropriate to include your questions in that session, although customers have asked similar questions which we [...]

Is the BetFair marketing message a big lie?

Rab Bibater’s comment on Midas Oracle:
[...] BetFair needs to nip the current round of noise in the bud once and for all. It needs to clarify its own advertisements, in which it states that “Because you are betting against other punters, ‘you could’ get better value;” which in the light of alleged revelations that [...]

One un-hired job candidate and one HammerSmith employee tell all about BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples.

Graham “Sharp” Minds, in a comment on Midas Oracle:

I am one of the people who Ed Murray has referred to in this blog. I was interviewed at Hammersmith by Betfair during the summer. For the time being I am going to concentrate on what Betfair has finally admitted from the past, present and future plans [...]

With the multiples, BetFair takes the role of a bookmaker.

BetFair Help:

What is multiples betting?
Betfair offers multiples betting, also known as accumulator betting. You can combine a number of selections from different markets into one bet. Betfair allows multiples of between two and eight legs. A leg is an outcome of a single market. You can select one or more runners from a market to [...]

Intrade, with carry

For years now, a criticism of Intrade has been its lack of a positive carry in long-term markets. In contrast to regulated futures exchanges, Intrade does not pay out interest on deposits to most traders. While understandable, this discourages liquidity and can skew prices near extremes as future winnings are discounted, exaggerating any favorite/longshot bias.
If [...]

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