American Civics Exchange:

Having just executed an initial round of closings for the funding we’ve been raising, we’re entering the final run-up to our real-money trading launch. With that in mind, we’ve launched a community feature where prospective traders (and other interested members of the public) can propose political outcomes they’d like to see traded on the exchange.

You can submit your proposals here: http://amciv.com/ideas .

InTrade:

New Prediction Market: Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Tuesday, May 17, 2011

On May 16th 2011 Dominique Strauss-Kahn appeared in New York City Criminal Court and was charged with two counts of a criminal sexual act in the first degree , first-degree attempted rape, first-degree sexual abuse, second-degree unlawful imprisonment, forcible touching, and third-degree sexual abuse. These seven charges are detailed in the criminal court complaint found HERE.

Intrade has opened a market for Dominique Strauss-Kahn to be found guilty of, or plead guilty to, at least one of the charges laid against him. This market can be found under Legal > D. Strauss Kahn.

Market Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if:

- Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found guilty of at least one of the seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
– Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to at least one of the seven counts

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if (including, but not limited to):

- Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found not guilty of all seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
- All counts are dropped
- The case is dismissed
- A mistrial is declared (for all counts)
- Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to lesser charges only as part of a plea agreement (please note that if Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to any of the original charges as part of plea agreement the contract will expire at 100)

This market covers only the charges covered in the complaint. Any other criminal or civil cases will not be considered when expiring this market.

The contracts will be paused if possible when a verdict is about to be announced and will be expired as soon as that decision is made public.

The end date on the contract is for indication purposes only. This date may be extended if necessary.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Contract Rule 1.4

Due to the nature of this prediction market contract you are obligated to read Contract Rule 1.7 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or exchange rules before you place an order to trade.

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Video link.

Tristane Banon et AgoraVox: retour sur une… par AgoraVox

At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

Here’s BetFair’s prediction market on the YES side:

Tipped by Mike Robb.

NHK WORLD TV live on USTREAM.

PREVIOUSLY: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Libya — Muammar al-Gaddafi – [5 spellings: Gaddafi, Qaddafi, Gadhafi, Khadafy and Khadafi]:

Bahrain — Khalifah ibn Sulman al-Khalifah:

Yemen — Ali Abdullah Saleh:

Iran — Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

Iran — Seyed Ali Hoseyni Kh?mene’i:

GEO TAGS: Middle East – Northern Africa.

Previously: The liberation of the Arab countries will ultimately lead to a war with Israel. — [PREDICTION]

Next: Justin Wolfers didn’t inform the Freakonomics readers about InTrade’s mistake related to the contract statements of the ‘dictator departure markets’.

What a shame.

InTrade is managed by a bunch of incapable incompetents.

FINAL UPDATE: InTrade CEO John Delaney apologizes for the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction market scandal. – {Mubarak Market Unwound} – [VICTORY]

…but won’t approve its movie box-office prediction markets.

Update.

Via Max Keiser… who has this to say:

I’m glad Chilton brought this up.

When I was CEO of HSX – I shared a board seat with members who were also on the board of Lionsgate Films.

Lionsgate was constantly moving the prices of their films (or films they had an interest in, or a friend’s film) on HSX as a way to manipulate perception and marketing dollar spends.

This conflict blew up in the now famous Access Hollywood incident;
http://www.villagevoice.com/1999-11-16/news/access-denied/
I was stopped from reporting the real numbers on HSX on Access Hollywood and prices from that moment forward were controlled by people who whose interests lay with the studios.

I went to war with the rest of the board to defend my creation, and my technology, and all the IP that is HSX/Cantorx – board members included Citibank and NBC who sided with the studios – in allowing the prices on HSX to be moved per ‘marketing’ requests made by the studios. This lead to a blowout on the board and my leaving HSX as a result.

Shortly thereafter, the same dissident board members engineered the deal with Cantor for HSX – that has yet to be consummated. None of the investors who put $40 mn. into HSX have ever seen a penny from Cantor. There is no paper trail that links Cantor to HSX. Cantor claims everything was lost on 9/11.

Now – they hope to take the studio/wall st. collusion to the next level via Cantor Exchange. Bart Chilton is right to be suspicious of this. Will they really due their due diligence? Doubtful. This is Wall St. we’re talking about.

Personally, I put 95% of my wealth in gold bullion 8 years ago – so to be clear – another blowup of another exchange will only drive the price of gold higher – so I am half-wanting to see this catastrophe unfold.

Previously: Why the CFTC won’t approve the Cantor Exchange and the Trend Exchange’s prediction markets on movie box office