Category Archives: Market Expiry
Copenhagen Prediction Market
“final payoffs and ranking of ALL markets will take place shortly after 1 February 2010, when the details of the document will have been decided.”
2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silver’s prediction more accurate than InTrade’s?
Nate Silver’s prediction (November 2, 2009): “I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
[ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]
You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:
Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 — Prediction Accuracy
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm”.
Both the bookmakers and [...]
Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.
Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17)
A credible source of information about Chicago’s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, vendors of products and services to major events and others have a direct stake in whether [...]
In tricky cases, shouldn’t prediction exchanges void all bets and refund all bettors?
BetFair in Prediction Market Settlement Row With Simon Cawkwell
Event derivative trader set to continue with BetFair legal battle
[Simon Cawkwell] stood to lose £6,342 if the market was settled with Quinn getting the job, but would collect £29,983 if it went to another manager. Quinn was appointed, but Cawkwell claimed only on a temporary basis, which [...]
Recent Comments