Category Archives: Market Expiry

BetFair’s glitch ruins a set of £23m prediction markets. — [LINKS]

Posted on December 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair’s official statement. The British press on the disaster. Via Mark Davies.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Software | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, glitch, Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle, prediction markets, Software | Leave a comment

InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: How do we know the Intrade price was not accurate? Well, the raid wasn’t just executed on a whim. It had been planned for quite some time. Therefore, the true likelihood must have been much higher than the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, scam, terrorism, terrorists | Leave a comment

InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, Robin Hanson, terrorism, terrorists | 1 Comment

InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

I already blogged about the big fail of the prediction markets. Here’s more from the NYT, Eddy Elfenbein, and Barry Ritholtz.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, terrorism, terrorists | 4 Comments

InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Contra to Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki (who all have exaggerated the usefulness of the prediction markets), collective forecasting is not a tool we can rely on for just anything. As I wrote in the past, we need … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, electricity, energy, event derivative markets, Fukushima, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Japan, Justin Wolfers, nuclear electricity, nuclear energy, nuclear energy plant, nuclear energy plants, nuclear power, power plant, power plants, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, traders | 1 Comment

The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 5 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: Upgrade to Level 6, here. Next: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, earthquake, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Fukushima, IAEA, International Atomic Energy Agency, InTrade, Japan, prediction markets, tsunami | Leave a comment

InTrade took ample time to settle the (redux) Mubarak contracts. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on February 16, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

They waited some time before settling the 3 markets, as you can spot on this chart: After a big fail, one can never be too prudent. Previously: InTrade CEO John Delaney apologizes for the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction market scandal. — … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, Egypt, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hosni Mubarak, InTrade, John Delaney, Mubarak, prediction markets | Leave a comment

InTrade CEO John Delaney apologizes for the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction market scandal. – {Mubarak Market Unwound} – [VICTORY]

Posted on February 8, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Chris Van Niekerk (yesterday, February 7, 2011): John, I am calling on you to fix this problem before the story spreads outside of this forum [*] and takes on a life of its own. [*] Last week, Midas Oracle offered … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, Carl Wolfenden, Chris Van Niekerk, court, Egypt, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fraud, Germany, Hosni Mubarak, idiots, incapables, incompetents, InTrade, John Delaney, justice, morons, Mubarak, prediction markets, suing, suits | Leave a comment

Big trader furious at how InTrade settled the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction markets (even though the Egyptian dictator is still in power, at publication time) is suing their pants off using the German justice system as a springboard to get these Irish morons (namely John Delaney and Carl Wolfenden) to reckon their mistake. – [QUOTES]

Posted on February 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Chris Van Niekerk: Well, I have come to the end of my wits here. This is very sad. The reputation of a business such as Intrade is the lifeblood of this type of operation. This sort of arbitrary expiry does … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Ethics, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, Carl Wolfenden, Chris Van Niekerk, court, Egypt, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fraud, Germany, Hosni Mubarak, idiots, incapables, incompetents, InTrade, John Delaney, justice, morons, Mubarak, prediction markets, suing, suits | Leave a comment

InTrade has just settled their ‘Mubarak Departure’ contracts (even though the Egyptian dictator is still at the helm of the country, at publication time). – #controversy – [CHARTS]

Posted on February 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade has just settled the February and June contracts. Read it here. – “Intrade Market on Mubarak to depart Settled.” – Al-Jazeera: “Mubarak vows to finish term.” UPDATE: Please read Mike Linksvayer’s comment, just below. And here’s the link to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, diplomacy, Egypt, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hosni Mubarak, Politics, prediction markets, President Mubarak, world politics | 2 Comments

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