Category Archives: Leading & Lagging Indicators

Why did all the prediction markets get the Olympic decision to reject Chicago so wrong?

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The blogger at Sabernomics sees “this as a win for prediction markets, not a failure.” I don’t share his views, but I wanted to link to his piece for you to make up your own mind about the issue.

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Never try to divine the IOC decisions on Olympics venues, Mike.

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prof Michael Giberson, No “careful observer knew this in advance” (about Chicago being a lemon), for the simple reason that if they knew, they would have downgraded Chicago on the InTrade and BetFair prediction markets, and Ben Shannon would have … Continue reading →

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Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?

Posted on October 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prof Michael Giberson: Chris, isn’t it odd for you to state “Chicago had not the slightest chance to begin with.” The phrase implies you believe that the probability of Chicago’s selection was near zero all along, but you have been … Continue reading →

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Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

Posted on October 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst. I TOLD YOU SO: – “Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.“ – The … Continue reading →

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Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Volume = (News Rate) * (Intrinsic Interest)

Posted on February 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Sounds true to me. What do our research scientists think? Would you re-formulate it?

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Prediction markets react to polls.

Posted on December 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Learning in Investment Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Polls – (PDF file) – David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti – 2008-12-XX In this paper, we explore how polls and prediction markets interact in the context of the 2008 U.S. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged , , , , | 13 Comments

Prediction markets on stock prices are not the panacea.

Posted on November 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

TradeFair, soon. Not a bad idea, but not the best idea they could have. The EPS prediction markets were a better idea, because they have many more primary indicators. -

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

InTrade finally expire the “Yahoo! CEO to step down” prediction market. — Many hours after the news of his upcoming departure hit the wires.

Posted on November 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Yahoo! press release Boom Town New York Times Wall Street Journal – -

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Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang is to step down. — But the InTrade prediction market failed to foretell us that.

Posted on November 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

As I wrote many times, the prediction markets on the resignation of CEOs or politicians do not work very well, because secrecy prevails, in most cases. (I don’t have the deep link, but I do remember Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Business, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments