HT Keith Anderson.

I watched the tape many times. Hilarious.

… “a man whose intelligence is destroyed by his own ego“.

Nicolas Sarkozy, David Cameron and Moustafa Abdel Jalil on September 15, 2001, in Benghazi, Lybia.

http://www.details.com/culture-trends/critical-eye/201109/peter-thiel-billionaire-paypal-facebook-internet-success

I am pleased to report that my alternative prediction model appears to be better than prediction markets in most respects! My model was able to match the calibration of prediction markets in every case, but the real benefit was how far in advance my model was able to predict the outcome, with equal or better calibration than prediction markets! In all cases, my model was very well-calibrated with the outcomes a full two years prior to the outcome being revealed! To my knowledge, no prediction market has ever been well-calibrated two years prior to the outcome. Not only that, but my model was able to achieve this level of accuracy for the most difficult to predict outcomes. Unfortunately, however, my model was not able to forecast so-called “easier to predict” outcomes with the same level of accuracy.

Santo Subito!

The DSK affair illustrates the difference between France and America. I’ll leave it to you.

Just in passing, here’s a Paris Match article on Emile Servan-Shreiber’s father (a media tycoon turned failed politician) about a time when he had concurrently his wife and a mistress, with knowledge and approval of both sides. Good old time.