Category Archives: Forecasting (Science & Practice)

Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]

Eric Zitzewitz: We are academic researchers who study prediction markets. We are writing in favor of allowing NADEX, or a similar entity, to offer a broad range of political and policy event futures, including the three they are currently proposing. … Continue reading

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Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]

Central banks should set up prediction markets.

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New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading

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InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]

For info, here’s the Midas Oracle feed at Twitter. I publish there plenty of prediction market news that don’t appear on this blog.

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Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]

Philip Tetlock:

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Knowns and unknowns of the 2012 presidential elections — [LINK]

“We gather information from a variety of sources (some of which are themselves information aggregators), including prediction markets, polls, web search, social activity, games, and historical precedent, and combine it together to produce a Consensus Prediction that is as unbiased, … Continue reading

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How many predictions is the The Good Judgment Team’s system currently handling? — [NEWS]

20,000.

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Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task — [PAPER]

Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task: We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 … Continue reading

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How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]

Forrester Research’s Roxana Strohmenger has been caught red hand sucking up to our Paul Hewitt. Roxana Strohmenger (e-mail me at chrisfmasse at gmail dot com to get a copy of the report): At the end of the day, a prediction … Continue reading

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Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]

IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading

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