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Recent Posts
- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Category Archives: Forecasting (Science & Practice)
Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]
Philip Tetlock:
Knowns and unknowns of the 2012 presidential elections — [LINK]
“We gather information from a variety of sources (some of which are themselves information aggregators), including prediction markets, polls, web search, social activity, games, and historical precedent, and combine it together to produce a Consensus Prediction that is as unbiased, … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Prediction Journalism, Resources - References
Tagged 2012 presidential elections, blogs, certainty, David Pennock, David Rothschild, democrats, Internet sites, Politics, Prediction Journalism, probabilities, references, republicans, resources, sites, The Signal, uncertainty, US politics, Yahoo!, Yahoo! News, Yahoo! Research
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Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task — [PAPER]
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task: We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 … Continue reading
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]
IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading
Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research
Tagged Betting, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Psychology, Research
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