Archive for the 'Prices & Probabilities' Category

Arbitrage between play-money and real-money markets

Jed Christiansen July 23rd, 2008

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I’ve been running a niche prediction market site for research over the last three summers. Recently, some of these play-money markets overlapped with real-money markets currently on-going on Betfair.

In my post over at Mercury’s Blog, I discuss how I’ve used play-money market wisdom to take advantage of some poor market-makers on the real-money Betfair markets. Specifically, the favourite on one particular play-money market has a probability to win of ~80% (which I think is fairly accurate). I managed to buy that same contract on Betfair at the equivalent of a 40% probability. Similar examples still exist because of market makers that skewed initial odds towards long-shots (at least by play-money market standards).

Perhaps this will strike some conversation on potential arbitrage between play-money and real-money prediction markets.

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Producer of the Freakonomics documentary urges devotees to buy the event derivative at the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Price moves up.

Chris F. Masse July 23rd, 2008

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Freakonomics:

July 22nd,
2008
4:47 pm

I am producing the Freakonomics documentary, so I am particularly interested to read the comments to Prof. Strumpf’s guest post.

Koleman properly identified the likely reasons for FRKON’s summer swoon on the Hollywood Stock Exchange. While I cannot provide a definitive explanation for precisely which of those reasons was most influential, I can offer insight into what is actually transpiring (as distinguished from its virtual performance on HSX).

1. Theory: Changes in the likelihood of the movie being made. Reality: The film will be made; it is already “green lit”. I am an independent producer, subject to no studio. The likelihood of the film getting made has not wavered since I originally optioned the cinematic rights to Freakonomics. The only variables have been the scheduling vagaries and other challenges related to using multiple directors.

2. Theory: Changes in the perceived quality of the movie. Koleman posits a couple of possibilities: “funding shortfalls” and “conflicts among the five sets of directors”. Reality: There are no funding shortfalls (I am financing the film myself). None would have emerged yet, anyway. We haven’t even begun shooting the film. The directors will not be working together, so conflicts seem extraordinarily unlikely. To date, they have universally praised each other.

3. Theory: Out of sight, out of mind. Reality: This theory is true. We announced the project in December 2007 and earned a lot of press. Things have quieted significantly since then. We will get another wave of publicity this fall when we have presentable footage. We have another announcement that should generate attention, too (I address that below). Finally, there will be the inevitable surge of publicity when we announce our festival screenings in spring of 2009.

4. Theory: Get the movie mothballed. Reality: Although I am fascinated by conspiracy theories, they don’t apply here. There are no other investors. The Freakonomics documentary is as unconventional as the book. We hope it will be as iconic, too.

My theory: When we moved the shooting schedule from March to September, in order to better accommodate everyone’s schedules, I suspect the HSX investor community got restless. Moreover, FRKON is traded on an extraordinarily small base. Just a few purchases have a profound impact. It only took a few sellers to send the price hurtling downward. Put simply, now seems like a very opportune time to buy FRKON. The graph used shows its low mark on July 13th – it is up approximately 27% since last week and should continue to climb, just based on this blog post.

As a historical reference, I was an investor and Executive Producer for the critical darling, Paris je T’aime, another film that utilized the talents of several directors. It took several years to get made. Historically, omnibus projects just tend to take a little longer to make.

Sam, I appreciate the spirit of your post. I am a devoted fan of Freakonomics first and a producer second. Like you, I would like to involve as many people as possible in this project. Fortunately, we are poised to announce an innovative way to involve the entire Freakonomics community and attract rogue filmmakers. I’ll speak with Stephen and Steven about it, and we’ll announce it here first!

I am pleased to personally answer any questions the readers have about the Freakonomics documentary.

— Posted by Chad Troutwine

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Our previous post

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A documentary film is going to be made about the book “Freakonomics”. The problem is that the film won’t be made by one able and focused director —but rather by a bunch of folks, whose implication in the whole project will be ultra minimal. The expected result of that idiocy is that their documentary will be an uninteresting mosaic of short and superficial takes, and will surely tank at the box office, like all the Paris Hilton movies did. The Hollywood Stock Exchange traders are no idiots: they are sensing that that Freakonomics project is a stinking lemon, and they are selling the event derivative like it is bubonic plague.

Chris F. Masse July 22nd, 2008

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The “esteemed” economists are lining up, trying to second-guess the HSX traders, jotting down their favorite hypothesis about the possible reason for the upcoming disaster —but all smart that they are, they can’t see the obvious:

  • THE FREAKONOMICS DOCUMENTARY PROJECT IS A STINKING LEMON BECAUSE NO ONE OF VALUE IS IN CHARGE OF IT —FROM A TO Z.

Show me a collective documentary that was a hit, in the past.

If you want a project to succeed, then staff it with a visionary and a charismatic leader —not by a bunch of loose associates.

Our “esteemed” economists need to study “Management Science 101″.

Another reason to be wary of economists: they talk well, but they can’t build anything with their 2 hands.

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“Possum”, one of the biggest and most well known political bloggers in Justin Wolfers’ country (i.e., Australia), has an amazing InTrade webpage. Check it out.

Chris F. Masse July 22nd, 2008

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Max Keiser’s politics is controversial. But, as a journalist, he is a genius. Market-based probabilistic predictions (whether it’s play money or real money) are now part of his daily punditry toolbox.

Chris F. Masse July 22nd, 2008

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Max Keiser looks at what the prediction markets are predicting the outcome will be at the Geneva talks on the Doha Round.

Here’s the link to the HubDub prediction market which Max Keiser plugs in this video segment.

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I don’t fully agree with Max Keiser’s politics, but I do love his video prediction market journalism. Max, you’re great, here.

Chris F. Masse July 19th, 2008

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YouTube

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Why I am dropping InTrade from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets

Chris F. Masse July 19th, 2008

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The first chart is from InTrade “v1″ and the second chart is from InTrade “v2″.

Look how ugly the first chart is.

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Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com
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Homer\'s brain

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My demands:

  1. The v1 charts should as good as the v2 charts.
  2. It should possible to embed a chart without the need to delete the returns at the end of each code line. (NewsFutures is exemplary for this.)
  3. It should possible to hot-link to the InTrade advanced charts.
  4. Generally, there should be more consideration for prediction market journalism in InTrade’s senior management.

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Unless my demands are not satisfied, the 1,600 daily readers of Midas Oracle (600 visitors on the Web + 1,000 feed subscribers) won’t hear anymore about InTrade Ireland. I’m fed up.

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Domestic Box Office Receipts (2008-07-18~20) - Batman: The Dark Knight to gross over $130.0M in opening weekend.

Chris F. Masse July 19th, 2008

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Price for Domestic Box Office Receipts. Jul 18-20 2008 at intrade.com

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The Dark Knight

Chris F. Masse July 18th, 2008

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More info about that Batman movie.

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In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.

Chris F. Masse July 18th, 2008

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UPDATE: He took the bait…

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