Category Archives: Market Prices & Probabilities

Drudge links directly to InTrade prediction markets, bypassing journalos. — [SCREENSHOT]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Journalism, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Zealand’s election gag law suspends iPredict’s political prediction markets. — [LINKS]

- Election gags and efficient markets. – Election gag.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Politics, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction market manipulation — [LINK]

@ iPredict (New Zealand).

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Once again, Yahoo!’s David Rothschild forgets to cite InTrade and BetFair as probability sources. — [OOPS]

Here. Previously.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Yahoo’s David Rothschild scraps market info from InTrade (and BetFair?), does not cite them, and does not link to them. — [UPDATED]

David Pennock’s little protégé should receive a crash course about citing sources. C’est minable. UPDATE: David Rothschild e-mails me to say he forgot to link to InTrade and BetFair in that story, at publication time, but he added the links … Continue reading

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Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]

More. – “A financial adviser or stock broker should be licensed to provide any consultation on investment in securities.” -

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ex-HSX Max Keiser claims that InTrade’s Ron Paul prediction market is manipulated. — [VIDEO]

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, News, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Post-Delaney InTrade experiences turmoil related to the debt ceiling prediction market. — [CHART + LINK]

37 pages (!!) on the InTrade message board. Once again, one can question the professionalism of the InTrade execs and the usefulness of the prediction markets.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

InTrade prediction markets on US debt ceiling — [CHARTS]

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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Why does InTrade offer gold contracts to US customers when they signed a 2005 agreement with the CFTC not to offer commodity options to US customers? — [DOCUMENT]

InTrade does it. (Hat tip to a MO reader.) InTrade wasn’t authorized to trade yearly contracts. Do you, guys, have an explanation on why InTrade does it anyway? Release: 5124-05 For Release: October 4, 2005 U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION … Continue reading

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