Category Archives: Market Prices & Probabilities
Andrew Goldberg’s wrap-up on the InTrade prediction markets
Video by our good friend, Andrew Goldberg.
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FAIL
Will Michael Jackson cancel/not appear for any of his 10 announced London concerts this summer?
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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
The complete tragedy of Air France Flight 447 may never be known, but [...]
HubDub on CNN — 30 seconds into
HubDub
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Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.
Mike Linksvayer:
Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for which I did set up a contract. It is just as well that I didn’t — [...]
InTrade daily prediction market wrapup
Video by our good friend, Andrew Goldberg —who, unlike Wiser Than The Crowd, is in the open.
Tell me in the comments whether his video has value for you. If yes, then I might re-publish it daily. Or let Andrew post it himself. Let me know whether that sounds like a good idea. Give Andrew some [...]
The British prime minister will leave office this month —dixit the BetFair traders.
Gordon Brown to leave office before the end of June 2009:
Addendum: To the despair of both Prof Panos and Wiser Than The Crowd, here is a link back to the recent “failures” of the prediction markets.
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