Category Archives: Market Expiry

Mike Linksvayer himself is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 5, 2009 — 2 Comments

Mike Linksvayer:
Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for which I did set up a contract. It is just as well that I didn’t — [...]

Also posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Information Aggregation, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Market Journalism, X Groups | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, internet marketing, liquidity, marketing, Mike Linksvayer, prediction markets, Wikipedia, X Groups

The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 30, 2009 — 4 Comments

I have an ongoing disagreement with Prof Panos about how to report a set of expired prediction markets. He claims that one should report “the historic average of similar markets”. That’s important but not urgent. First thing is to report whether one prediction market of interest has failed or succeeded. I have explained that that [...]

Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Information Aggregation, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Market Journalism | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, Britain's Got Talent 2009, event derivative markets, expiry, HubDub, InTrade, marketing approach, Panos Ipeirotis, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, quoting the prediction markets, reporting on prediction markets, Science, scientific approach, statistical and probabilistic approach, Susan Boyle

Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 29, 2009 — 6 Comments

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Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Information Aggregation, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, American Idol, American Idol 2009, BetFair, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, prediction markets

Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —once again.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 26, 2009 — 4 Comments

LAT: Sonia Sotomayor is Obama’s Supreme Court nominee.

Via our good friend Daniel Horowitz
Previously: Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

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Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Information Aggregation, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged Barack Obama, InTrade, prediction markets, SCOTUS, Sonia Sotomayor, Supreme Court Of The United States, Supreme Justices, US Supreme Court Of Justice

Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 22, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Aggregating information was not enough to predict the future —this time. Our prediction exchanges won’t issue any statement about it: They will keep it under the rug. When their prediction markets succeed, they brag about it in the media. But when prediction markets fail miserably, it is a deafening silence out there. The “wisdom of [...]

Also posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, American Idol, Collective Intelligence, efficiency, InTrade, prediction markets, velocity, wisdom of crowds

A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 23, 2009 — 5 Comments

How come HubDub managed to get it right, when all the major prediction exchanges (BetFair, HSX, InTrade, NewsFutures, and even Nate Silver) all saw Mickey Rourke?
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81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

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Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma, accuracy, Add new tag, HubDub, prediction markets, The Oscars

HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.

Written by Jenni Peterson on February 23, 2009 — 25 Comments

Well the Oscars have come and gone and although most pundits are chattering about Slumdog’s amazing 8 wins and Hugh Jackman’s dulcet tones, I’m more impressed by Hubdub’s amazing success.
Out of the major races, we got EVERY SINGLE ONE RIGHT. We were also the only major prediction exchange to correctly predict the Best Actor race [...]

Also posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Entertainment, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, HubDub, Oscars, prediction markets

BetFair: The Oscars 2009? We won.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 23, 2009 — 1 Comment

Mike Robb is quick to roar victory for the quasi-accurate BetFair predictions on the Oscars 2009.
PS: I credit the accuracy to both the information aggregation mechanism (BetFair’s prediction exchange) and the BetFair traders.

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Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, Oscars 2009, prediction markets

Nate Silver’s model vs. InTrade’s prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 23, 2009 — 3 Comments

The information is below.
However, before that, just a short note.
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The real comparison to do would be to compare the prediction markets with a panel of very diverse Oscar predictors.
The real question to ask is, “Was forecasting each Oscar category an easy task or a difficult task?”. If it is considered easy, then the prediction markets [...]

Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Traditional Forecasting | Tagged InTrade, Nate Silver, Oscars, Oscars 2009, prediction markets, Predictions, Traditional Forecasting

InTrade and BetFair make it impossible for me to show you the expired charts on the Oscars 2009.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment

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UPDATE: Correction. Even though the Oscars 2009 is now a past event (it is midnight time, Pacific Time), InTrade has the prediction markets listed in their live section. Bizarre. They are still open. I wonder whether that means that InTrade is in such a dire situation that they cannot afford anymore to have Irish employees [...]

Also posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Usability, Market Charting System, Software | Tagged BetFair, closed contracts, closed prediction markets, expired charts, expired contracts, expired prediction markets, Internet Usability, InTrade, prediction markets, usability

Category Archives: Market Expiry

Mike Linksvayer himself is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.

The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing.

Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”.

Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —once again.

Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma

HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.

BetFair: The Oscars 2009? We won.

Nate Silver’s model vs. InTrade’s prediction markets

InTrade and BetFair make it impossible for me to show you the expired charts on the Oscars 2009.

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