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The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 10:02:50 +0000

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform – NYT – by a former CBO director.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

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“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:22:55 +0000

Ron Paul

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 16:52:11 +0000

One (anonymous) InTrade trader:

I am utterly convinced Intrade participates in its own markets. Every few hours some kind of API hits the bids on the GOP 2012 nomination contract when the bids sum to more 100. It will even short bids at 0.1, which is a money losing proposition when you figure the transaction cost alone of 0.3 (since the price is below 5). Also, the amount of margin required to short all of these bids is in the millions of dollars.

So the actor has to a) not care about the transaction fee and b) have limitless margin. Intrade fits the bill for both of these. a) they don’t care about transaction fees because they are ultimately collecting them and b) if you only short when the bids are summed to over 100, it’s essentially an arb.

The trader also tells me that, on the InTrade forums where those questions were asked many times, InTrade never denied that they trade on their own prediction markets.

Previously: What was Max Keiser doing at InTrade HQ two years ago? –> “due diligence”…!??…

What was Max Keiser doing at InTrade HQ two years ago? –> “due diligence”…!??…

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:59:35 +0000

Max Keiser:

[...] I asked John Delaney and his tech team when I was doing my due diligence on InTrade a couple of years ago in Dublin – about the firm’s own participation in making markets – and the potential to ‘manage’ prices in ways that were outside of the normal price discovery mechanism. I came away from that meeting not convinced at all that adequate checks and balances were in place to protect against manipulation. [...]

Details, details.

I am calling all my Deep Throats. Contact me. Tell me more.

Next: Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:17:19 +0000

Nate Silver:

I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had them work 24/7 on trying to beat the Intrade contract, I’m not sure if they could come up with anything sufficiently rigorous to provide them with a real advantage. (That doesn’t necessarily mean the market is “efficient”, but we’ll save that conversation for another day.) But for what it’s worth, the Intrade contract, which is trading at 75 percent right now, now looks about right to me or perhaps even a hair pessimistic.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:35:20 +0000

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:16:02 +0000

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.

Makes no sense at all.

The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.

DISAMBIGUATION: The “illiquid” adjective refers to the UK political markets on InTrade —not the US political prediction markets.

BetFair App for the iPhone and the iPad –> BetFair Rattle

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:17:26 +0000

As I understand it, BetFair has one iPhone App for the British bettors (only).

And they’ve just released a new one (BetFair Rattle), also only for the UK Apple App Store.

BetFair:

BETFAIR LAUNCHES FREE IPHONE APP FOR FOOTBALL FANS

BETFAIR, the world’s biggest online sports betting company, has released a nifty new application for football fans to compete against each other in order to make their club the most supported on the iPhone.

The ‘app-tly’ named Betfair Rattle provides a quick and easy interface for fans to check fixtures and then turn their phone into a rattle with which to back their side. Support for a particular team increases according to how much fans shake their phones before the match kicks-off.

In time, Betfair hopes to release a Betfair Rattle league table, so if you’re sitting bottom of the Premier League and have lost 10 in a row your team can still get three points at the weekend if you get your rattle out. For instance, Portsmouth fans will be glad to know they got three points at Anfield last night, even if they don’t have the bragging rights in real life.

Betfair’s Mobile Manager Richard Hewitt said: “First and foremost we wanted to create something where fans compete against each other to show support for their teams, but we also wanted to provide something that was genuinely useful by making sure it was the most simple way of checking upcoming fixtures on the iPhone.

“So many apps are slow and clunky when all a user wants is the information there and then, and that’s what this app provides.

“Above all else though, it’s a bit of fun and we hope football fans across the country will be seen shaking their iPhones at stadiums around the country come 2:55pm every Saturday.”

To download the app go to:
http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/betfair-rattle/id360162909?mt=8

http://iphone.betfair.com/

“InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:51:56 +0000

Dixit Jason Ruspini.

OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:22:18 +0000

IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.

See Jason Ruspini’s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.