Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point.

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Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point.

Here&#8217-s the expanded list of Consensus Point customers &#8212-Fortune-500 firms, mainly.

Here&#8217-s their definition of what is a prediction market.

Here&#8217-s their product page.

With Inkling Markets and NewsFutures, Consensus Point is the co-leader in the enterprise prediction markets space.

Best wishes to all of them.

Exago Markets, Portugal, E.U.

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As I understand it:

– Prediction market consultancy in Portugal-

– They probably licensed Xpree&#8216-s software for enterprise prediction markets. UPDATE: They created their own software for enterprise prediction markets.

Best wishes to them.

NewsFutures Enterprise Prediction Market Workshop, NYC, 10/27

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For aspiring practitioners and those intrigued by the applications of collective intelligence in the workplace, the typical prediction markets conference can be frustrating for lack of focus on practical knowledge and hands-on experience with the tools. That&#8217-s why NewsFutures is organizing a Wisdom of Crowds Consulting Workshop, in New York City, on October 27.

It is designed primarily for business consultants who would like to acquire working knowledge of &#8220-WOC&#8221–based solutions, or for the manager looking for some hands-on experience while considering the potential of this approach for his or her company.

The one-day program will cover:

  • Foundations
    Prediction Markets and Wisdom of Crowds 101: principles, mechanisms, evidence, and applications
  • Applications
    Case studies in strategy, forecasting, innovation, and project management
  • Tools
    Hands-on experience with various wisdom-of-crowds software tools: Prediction Markets, Competitive Forecasting, Idea Pageant, and Impact Matrix
  • Practice
    Keys to a successful implementation: information, integration, inclusion, interface, and incentives
  • Collaboration
    Nuts and bolts of working with NewsFutures

If you are interested, please follow this link for more information about the venue and how to register.

I look forward to seeing you in NY, home of the world&#8217-s financial meltdown!


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Google PageRank of the main Prediction Market Consultants

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Inking Markets and NewsFutures are graded 6 / 10.

Consensus Point and Xpree are graded 5 / 10.

My great friend David Perry of Consensus Point is making a strategic mistake by insisting on discretion and secrecy.

I told him 10 times.

To no avail.

Pissing in a violin in order to create a symphony would have been more fruitful.

PageRank is important.

One day, we will learn in the Wall Street Journal that a Fortune-500 CEO is fired by the board for a low PageRank.

That will happen one day- you will see.

The Prediction Market Consultants

Inkling Markets Advisory Board… which does not want to tell its name

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Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)

Inkling Markets&#8217- Advisory Board (curiously named &#8220-Friends Of Inkling&#8221-):

  1. Bo Cowgill, Google Inc. &#8212- Product developer, expert on decision markets for Google- creator of Google&#8217-s prediction market and co-author of Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google.
  2. George Gendron, Clark University &#8212- Founder and director of the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Program at Clark University- former Editor-in-Chief of Inc. magazine.
  3. Our Michael Giberson. :-D &#8212- His recently updated website states: *Update:* Beginning in August, 2008, Michael Giberson will be joining the faculty of the Center for Energy Commerce in the Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University.
  4. Bob Johansen, Institute for the Future &#8212- Author of Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present and six other books- Distinguished fellow and former CEO of Institute for the Future (IFTF), a Palo Alto based think tank that does ten-year forecasting.
  5. Jane McGonigal, PhD, renowned gaming developer &#8212- Award-winning innovative game designer, researcher and analyst. MIT Technology Review named her as one of the top 35 innovators changing the world through technology.
  6. Russ Roberts, management consultant and professor, Northwestern University &#8212- A strategy and organization effectiveness consultant and professor at the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
  7. Philip Rosedale, Linden Lab / Second Life &#8212- Founder and chairman of Linden Lab, creator of the acclaimed 3D virtual world Second Life. In 2007, he was listed among Time Magazine&#8217-s 100 Most Influential People in the world.

Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.

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My republishing of the brand-new NewsFutures explainer was the most popular Midas Oracle story this morning.

The sentence in the title was the most talked about. Many Deep Throats offered me their conjectures. Emile is quite a smart man.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 Electoral Map
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?

Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism

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Xpree&#8217-s Mat Fogarty (responding to Jed Christiansen, even though Jed didn&#8217-t talk to him but to Emile Servan-Schreiber :-D &#8212-argh, kids, today, interrupting adults&#8217- conversations :-D ):

We have had success combining voting to rank the ideas, then prediction markets to analyze the potential of the top ranked ideas. The phrasing in the prediction market needs to be quite specific, if we invested in idea A, how long would it take to get to market? how much would we sell in the first year? If the company does not invest in idea A, then the money bet in the market is returned to the user.

With long development cycles this can be challenging as it requires keeping the market active until ship, or for the sales estimate, one year after ship.

Of course, you could use a preference market – but this has issues of information cascades and rewarding of group think.


Here&#8217-s the Xpree stuff which Mat is talking about.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.
  • Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

STRAIGHT FROM THE DOUBLESPEAK DEPARTMENT: NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber, well known to chase tirelessly the Infidels who dare calling prediction markets their damn polling system, is eager to sell the confusion to his clients and whomever would listen.

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Emile&#8217-s made up a phrase that means nothing (except in his fertile imagination), &#8220-a proprietary prediction market variant&#8220- &#8212-sounds like a red herring to me.

Unlike Consensus Point, Inkling Markets and Xpree, NewsFutures is the only prediction market software vendor not to have adopted Robin Hanson&#8217-s MSR &#8212-a simplified trading technology now in use in most enterprise prediction markets.