Robin Hanson:

I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, such firms usually don’t doubt my claims that such forecasts are cheap and more accurate. Nevertheless, they usually aren’t interested.

The other take about forecast accuracy.

Why not experiment at GMU?

Have the students run the university using Futarchy principals. They pick the goals, then you use markets.

You can even start on a smaller scale, a class.

Report back on your experiment.

Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.

Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.

Who cares about that Mencius Moldbug anyway?

Previously.

- Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog.

- Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.

- Paul Hewitt:

[...] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that they are as good as alternative methods, and in a very few cases, very slightly better. Also, you need to be aware that even the slightly better prediction markets had the benefit of the alternative forecasting institution available to it. That is, the official forecasters at HP were also participants in the ever-so-slightly better prediction markets. [...]

–> I personally stay away from any discussion about conditional prediction markets (and futarchy). I prefer focusing on the ‘simple’ prediction markets.

What is the secret of your success?

As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are likely to make a lot of money.

What is your basic investment strategy?

Buy low and sell high. I try to find something that is very cheap, where a positive change is taking place. Then I do enough homework to make sure I am right. It has got to be cheap so that, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much money. Every time I make a mistake, it is usually because I did not do enough homework.

Do not underestimate the value of due diligence. In the 1960s, General Motors was the world’s most successful company. One day, a GM analyst went to the board of directors with the message: “The Japanese are coming.” They ignored him. Investors who did their homework sold their GM stock – and bought Toyota instead.

I’m not buying any stocks at the moment. If anything is undervalued now it is commodities and some currencies.

- Second missile: A critical review of Robin Hanson’s paper, “A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy”.