Category Archives: Analysis (Market Proposals)

U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]

Posted on April 30, 2011 by Tom W. Bell

Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, & Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute’s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares … Continue reading →

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CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the Trend Exchange and the Cantor Exchange’s movie box-office prediction markets

Posted on April 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the movie box-office futures: Via Max Keiser… who has this to say: I’m glad Chilton brought this up. When I was CEO of HSX – I shared a board seat with members who were also … Continue reading →

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Paul Hewitt on Rajiv Sethi on Nate Silver on Robin Hanson on climate change prediction markets

Posted on December 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Measuring Decision Market Accuracy

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Betting on Copenhagen

Posted on December 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber comments on a New York Times opinion piece: The idea that betting could help us gain clarity on some controversial scientific questions has first been proposed by George Mason economics professor Robin Hanson in 1992 in a paper … Continue reading →

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On Prediction Markets for Climate Change

Posted on December 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi on Robin Hanson and Nate Silver’s climate change prediction markets.

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Could think tanks impact the socially valuable prediction markets?

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Matt Yglasias on the possibility of manipulations. – Robin Hanson rebuts scientifically.

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Robin Hanson is confident about long-term prediction markets.

Posted on November 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: At ideosphere.com you will find eight claims that are over fifteen years old and still trading. One of them will be known in a few weeks. Calibration tests have been done on ideosphere prices showing moderate long shot … Continue reading →

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Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL.

Posted on November 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master. ACT ONE: Nate Silver lunched with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting. ACT TWO: Robin Hanson has … Continue reading →

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Is Robin Hanson’s Futarchy Full Of BullShit?

Posted on August 11, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Why doesn’t Robin Hanson implement his grandiose idea on a small organization (like George Mason University), as opposed to a national government, to see whether it makes sense? I suspect it doesn’t. Prediction markets have very, very slightly improved the … Continue reading →

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ROBIN HANSON HAS RENOUNCED TO RULE THE UNIVERSE VIA PREDICTION MARKETS.

Posted on June 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: I’m not proposing to implement futarchy full stop one day; I’m proposing to run a series of increasingly large trials. That would give you the data you want. Wow, modesty and humility. Mark the day.

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