Category Archives: All Best Posts Ever
Betdaq’s financials
[This article by a guest author has been contested, for the reason that information about the bigger picture was missing. It is retired.]
Hearthis post
In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone.
I had a question about VentureBeat’s statement, and Leslie Fine has answered it.
VentureBeat:
As everyone has known since the modern corporation was invented, employees such as executive assistants or production line managers often have better information and more accurate insight than their management.
CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine:
The claim here is not that the administrator knows more than the [...]
Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?
Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do.
The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets
- A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps – by Paul Hewitt
- Why Public Prediction Markets Fail – by Paul Hewitt
Both articles are required reading for Jed Christiansen and Panos Ipeirotis (alias “Prof Panos”).
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Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?
Niall O’Connor:
Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in the words of Michael Sandel, “at the end of an era of market triumphalism”.
Robin Hanson:
I deny [...]
Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach
Panos Ipeirotis hates it when I report an individual prediction market “failure“. (”Stupidity” is how he labelled it. )
I am a fan of Panos Ipeirotis’s scientific approach on prediction markets. It is all right.
However, I (obviously) won’t use the statistical and probabilistic approach when reporting about the expiry of one (or two) prediction [...]
Even when well calibrated, prediction markets can be useless, nevertheless.
Paul Hewitt:
The point of this discussion is that prediction markets should be well-calibrated, but this is not a sufficient condition for their usefulness. They must also provide accurate predictions, with relatively tight distributions. The maximum allowable dispersion of the distribution will depend on the materiality of the forecast error. That is, the prediction [...]
What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting
In honor of our good doctor Robin Hanson, I am creating a new category, “collective forecasting“ —and the “forecasting” category becomes “traditional forecasting“, to mark the difference. (Can you sense it, Paul Hewitt?) The prof should take this as a great honor. The last time I created a new category, that was “science“, in honor [...]
Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
What is the etymology of the word forecasting?
forecast (v.)
c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494.
Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
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THE END RESULT OF THE MEMORIAL DAY FIGHTING OVER TERMINOLOGY:
Etymology indicates that the word “forecasting” is OK to use as a [...]
Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?
Robin Hanson:
There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies. Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets.
What Robin Hanson does not say to his gullible readers (mostly, young collegians who have no experience of real-life forecasting) is that:
When [...]
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