Chris F. Masse
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The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
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How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? by Chris F. Masse
The second CNBC video on InTrade’s prediction markets is up and running. by Chris F. Masse
CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrade’s prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff. by Chris F. Masse
In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS. by Chris F. Masse
“To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.” by Chris F. Masse
How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition by Chris F. Masse
Derivatives, Binaries, Futures, or… Prediction Markets? by Chris F. Masse
The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets looks like a messy Marrakesh bazaar. — Shame on all members of the field of prediction markets –including the author of this present, finger-wagging post. by Chris F. Masse
Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks. by Chris F. Masse
ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Collecting bits and pieces of information, and aggregating it, so we can understand what people know. by Chris F. Masse
How BetFair markets are settled in the situation where their integrity team are unhappy about some aspect of the betting on that event by Deep Throat
BetFair Education has now a sub-site within the BetFair blog. by Chris F. Masse
If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market). by Chris F. Masse
BetFair’s future bet-matching logic by Chris F. Masse
The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets — The McKinsey conference should have been rooted in the economic science and McKinsey should have invited economists. by Chris F. Masse
How accurate are prediction markets in US elections? by Chris F. Masse
Speculating on event derivative markets is not “investing”. by Chris F. Masse
Video on InTrade’s political prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. by Chris F. Masse
A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. by Chris F. Masse
A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !?? by Chris F. Masse
Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so the prices can be read as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. by Chris F. Masse
BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching. by Chris F. Masse
The concept of probabilistic prediction explained to the journalists and bloggers by Chris F. Masse
The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming by David Pennock
BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price by Chris F. Masse
Implied Probability of an Outcome –BetFair Edition by Chris F. Masse
BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities by Chris F. Masse
P(election) = P(nomination) * P(election conditional on nomination) by Chris F. Masse
The conundrum of the betting market = the favorite-longshot bias. by Chris F. Masse
Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy by Chris F. Masse
Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101 by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy by Chris F. Masse
Defining Probability in Prediction Markets by Panos Ipeirotis
Prediction Markets 101 by Chris F. Masse
GIGO and prophets, tears and markets by George Tziralis
CNN Political Market = soon, the Planet Earth’s most traded play-money prediction exchange —after HSX. by Chris F. Masse
What the hell is crowdsourcing??? by Chris F. Masse
How does a betting exchange work? by Chris F. Masse
0-100 prices… explained to the British traders. by Chris F. Masse
Do you see a sixth dimension to the prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
TradeFair Binaries User Guide - What is Trading? by Chris F. Masse
Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans. by Chris F. Masse
The details on BetFair’s Starting Prices by Chris F. Masse
Yes, Economics is a Science. by Chris F. Masse
Decision markets are markets where speculators set prices that estimate the consequences of a decision. by Chris F. Masse
The BetFair Starting Prices… explained by Chris F. Masse
How to make a set of Xpree prediction markets in 3 easy steps by Chris F. Masse
A virtual tour of InTrade, the leading prediction exchange for North America by Chris F. Masse
Explainer on Binary Betting with a Bookmaker by Chris F. Masse
Two models of forecasting by Jed Christiansen
Who wrote the broadest definition of prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
SophistPundit - Finite Mathematics by Chris F. Masse
Network Effects = Network Externalities by Chris F. Masse
The InTrade-TradeSports explainer by Chris F. Masse
How does a spread-betting exchange work? by Chris F. Masse
Robin Hanson’s annoying insistence on distinguishing prediction markets from betting markets by Chris F. Masse
The Inkling explainers on prediction markets are absolutely awesome. by Chris F. Masse
ADAM SIEGEL OF INKLING MARKETS VALIDATES CHRIS MASSE’S CONCEPT OF X GROUPS. by Chris F. Masse
The Inkling Markets explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
A methodology flaw in the last UK Gambling Commission’s survey report makes it useless for analysts and policy makers. by Chris F. Masse
Enthusiasm and Arbitrage Opportunities at Media Predict by Michael Giberson
A new prediction markets explainer video by Jed Christiansen
How does Koleman Strumpf define the prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
Here’s how Bet2Give explains what a prediction market is to its prospects. by Chris F. Masse
Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson by Michael Giberson
Risk that can be measured Vs. Uncertainty that cannot be measured by Chris F. Masse
Market Scoring Rules, best mechanism design ever?? by Chris F. Masse
The Robin Hanson explainer on decision markets for governments by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets - Practical Adoption by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets vs. Other Forecasting Tools by Chris F. Masse
The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Create your own prediction market at Inkling Markets in just 5 steps. by Chris F. Masse
Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets by Chris Hibbert
How To Make Money With Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Storage Markets explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
The Meaning of Probability, Class Probability, Case Probability, Betting, and Gambling by Chris F. Masse
Jed Christiansen’s video explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
A prediction markets explainer by Jed Christiansen
Shorting on Prediction Markets by Alex Kirtland
What is a network externality? by Chris F. Masse
HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline by Chris F. Masse
INTEL BUSINESS CASE: INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS DO WORK. by Chris F. Masse
Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. by Eric Zitzewitz
Paper on Corporate Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
Pop Sci outputs a flawed and biased explainer on prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
Pop Sci PredictionS Exchange by Chris F. Masse
With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate. by Chris F. Masse
MatchBook - Betting Exchange Explainer by Chris F. Masse
Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet. by David Stalcup
The ontological role of derivatives by Khurram Naik
ENTREPRENEURSHIP and MARKETING by Chris F. Masse
Intro to Prediction Markets Presentation by Alex Kirtland
The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options) by Chris F. Masse
EVENT DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE or PREDICTION EXCHANGE or BETTING EXCHANGE? by Chris F. Masse
What are the futures markets for? by Khurram Naik
Memo to Mike Knesevitch: EVENT MARKETS, no good. by Chris F. Masse
Keyword Of The Day: NETWORK EXTERNALITIES by Chris F. Masse
The InTrade prediction market, a live options bazaar trading in current events and politics by Chris F. Masse
Structuring the Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting by Chris Hibbert
Prediction Markets for Businesses by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets vs. Decision Markets by Chris F. Masse
Trading Bets at BetFair - Betting Exchange Explainer - Backing vs. Laying by Chris F. Masse
Beware when using acronyms. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets - Tapping the Wisdom of Crowds by Chris F. Masse
BetFair Multiples by Chris F. Masse
What the hell is a predicted probability?? - REDUX by Chris F. Masse
What the hell is a predicted probability?? by Chris F. Masse
Information or Event?? by Chris F. Masse
Information Derivatives, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse
Prognostic Markets, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse
How does the Hollywood Stock Exchange work? by Chris F. Masse
Prognosis Markets, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse
Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers by Chris Hibbert
BetFair’s explainer on betting exchanges by Chris F. Masse
NewsFutures’s explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Prof. Bainbridge on Burton Malkiel on the efficient capital markets theory (ECMH) by Chris F. Masse
Jason Ruspini wants clarification, too… by Chris F. Masse
HUMAN market makers = LEAD market makers by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets Definitions - REDUX REDUX by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets DEFINITIONS - not a “taxonomy” by Chris F. Masse
Professor Robin Hanson’s draft definitions are validated by professor Eric Zitzewitz. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets Definitions - REDUX by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets Definitions by Robin Hanson
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