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- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Author Archives: Tom W. Bell
U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]
Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, & Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute’s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, FantasySCOTUS, forecasts, law, prediction markets, Predictions, SCOTUS, Supreme Court, Tom W. Bell, U.S. Supreme Court
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Free Speech in Event Market Claims
In addition to a joint comment with a score of signers, I also responded to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts by firing off a solo comment. I there focused … Continue reading
The CFTC Deadline . . . Wavers
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts says, “Comments must be received by July 7, 2008.” What deadline does that impose? I played it safe, and assumed that I had to … Continue reading
Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.
Update: I’ve extended the deadline for signing up until 7 p.m. Pacific, Sunday, July 6. Also, I fixed a typo in paragraph 3, changing “denying” to “giving.” (Thanks, Gil!)> The deadline looms for interested parties to respond to the Commodity … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations
Tagged CFTC, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, Iowa, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, The University of Iowa, Trader, USD
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Protecting Private Prediction Markets
My draft paper, Private Prediction Markets and the Law, offers a variety of detailed suggestions about how to protect the former from the latter. Specifically, I offer strategies for avoiding the scope of CFTC regulation, for discouraging liability for illegal … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Business, Business Administration, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Gambling, Mechanism Designs, Regulations
Tagged CFTC, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction markets, Private, Regulations, Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom W. Bell, United States
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Building Exits into CFTC Regulation
Much of my draft paper, Private Prediction Markets and the Law, focuses on nuts-and-bolts fixes for the legal uncertainty that currently afflicts private prediction markets under U.S. law. I’ll say more about those in later posts to Agoraphilia and Midas … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations
Tagged CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event derivative markets, event derivatives, internet access, prediction markets, Private, Regulations, retail trading, Technology Liberation Front, Tom W. Bell, United States
9 Comments
Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets
People who run in-house, corporate prediction markets have told me that U.S. laws against illegal insider trading give them nightmares. The problem arises because a private prediction market typically generates material nonpublic information about the corporation that hosts it. If … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations
Tagged corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, insider trading, insider trading laws, insiders, internal prediction markets, Journal of Prediction Markets, laws, Private, private prediction markets, Tom W. Bell, United States
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Getting from Collective Intelligence to Collective Action
I really enjoyed attending the Collective Intelligence FOO Camp, sponsored by Google and O’Reilly Media, last weekend. I’d been expecting a sort of geek slumber party, and had looked forward to rolling out my awesome Darth Vader impersonation. I was … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Proposals), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Inventions & Innovations, Regulations
Tagged Collective Intelligence, Collective Intelligence Foo Camp, Google, independent researcher, Ireland, large private, Luke, O'Reilly Media, Technology Liberation Front, United States
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Quake Markets
Markets offer us a potentially useful tool for predicting earthquakes. Imagine the San Andreas fault divided into segments, each of which carries a price based on the present discounted disvalue of a future quake. That price would reflect both a … Continue reading