Author Archives: Steve Roman

About Steve Roman

Financial Analyst at FXCM - New York, U.S.A.

Five Reasons the Prediction Market Critics Are Wrong.

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Steve Roman

1. It really was an upset – As it has been pointed out elsewhere, the Clinton victory was a surprise to everyone. Favorites can lose. But so what? Ordinarily, that’s not a market flaw or a reason to doubt the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Massachusetts governor’s proposal to send the TradeSports-InTrade traders to jail is foolish.

Posted on November 12, 2007 by Steve Roman

Steve Roman: Expect to see more of this. State politicians have a big problem: they’ve made lots of promises and are financially unable to keep all of them. For the states, pension and health care promises made during expansionary times … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Politics, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Beware before citing the probabilistic predictions given by the prediction markets

Posted on October 18, 2007 by Steve Roman

Steve Roman: It’s good to see Intrade cited as authoritative but I don’t think the recession contracts have enough liquidity to accurately reflect the odds. Citing a contract price when there is only a small amount of liquidity is one … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Political Strategy and Prediction Markets

Posted on October 3, 2007 by Steve Roman

Strategists who want to know when a strategy is effective should pay attention to the market. Here is one losing strategy Edwards should drop: According to Intrade.com, every time the Edwards presidential campaign (via Elizabeth Edwards) tries to engage Coulter … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Plan To Take the Online Gaming Market – US Gaming Firms Tale of Shame

Posted on March 14, 2007 by Steve Roman

1. Pass legislation to get rid of foreign competition – The US Casinos had fallen so far behind the competition at this point that they didn’t have a chance of winning on merit. No matter – Senators are cheap. Although … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Insight or Connection – How Kynikos Associates Profited from the Gaming Bill

Posted on January 8, 2007 by Steve Roman

The FT has an excellent article about short seller James Chanos predicting and profiting from the gaming bill. His hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, had put a large slice of its $3bn in assets on a bold punt that shares in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Ethics, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Legalized Internet Gaming in New York

Posted on December 29, 2006 by Steve Roman

A buried NY Post article has the details, so far, just for horses: Racing and Wagering Board yesterday issued guidelines for internet wagering in N.Y. State, which becomes legal Jan. 22. NYRA is optimistic it will have its internet betting … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Gartman’s Rules of Trading

Posted on November 24, 2006 by Steve Roman

My favourite Thanksgiving tradition, from trading God Dennis Gartman 1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add To A Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading’s carginogen; It is trading’s driving-while intoxicated. It will lead … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Finance | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

TradeSports Castro Contract and CUBA

Posted on October 13, 2006 by Steve Roman

Traders can benefit from buying CUBA, a small closed end fund, and treating it like a call option on the death of Fidel Castro. The relationship between the TS contract and the price of the fund can be seen on … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , | 3 Comments